Luxembourg vs Iceland Prediction & Betting Tips 29/09/2026

Luxembourg vs Iceland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Luxembourg	Draw	Iceland
Model	10%	17%	73%
Market	28%	29%	44%
Published	23%	26%	51%
Edge	-17%	-12%	+29%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 0.96.
The market prices Iceland below the model: +29.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Luxembourg vs Iceland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Iceland, 11 snapshots since 2026-09-24.

Opened 2.45Now 2.15 -0.30

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Luxembourg	2.75	3.40	+0.65
Draw	3.13	3.25	+0.12
Iceland	2.45	2.15	-0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Luxembourg and Iceland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96Luxembourg

2.68Iceland

Total expected goals: 3.63
Attack rating (Luxembourg / Iceland): 0.73 / 1.39
Defence rating (Luxembourg / Iceland): 1.42 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Luxembourg vs Iceland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 6.4% 9.4% 8.4% 10.7% 1 1.9% 7.5% 9.1% 8.1% 10.3% 2 1.2% 3.2% 4.3% 3.9% 4.9% 3 0.4% 1.0% 1.4% 1.2% 1.6% 4+ 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%

Rows: Luxembourg goals. Columns: Iceland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Luxembourg vs Iceland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 70%

Over 3.5 49%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Luxembourg vs Iceland

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Luxembourg	23%	4.30
	Draw	26%	3.87
	Iceland	51%	1.97
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	69%	1.44
	Under 2.5	31%	3.27
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.74
	No	43%	2.35
Double chance	1X (Luxembourg or draw)	49%	2.04
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Iceland)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Iceland win by 2+	53%	1.89
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Luxembourg and Iceland recent form

Luxembourg 1W 0D 5L

Iceland 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Luxembourg vs Iceland head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Luxembourg 1 · draws 1 · Iceland 0.

50% 50% 0%

LuxembourgDrawsIceland

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2023-10-13	Iceland	1-1	Luxembourg	Euro Championship - Qualification
2023-09-08	Luxembourg	3-1	Iceland	Euro Championship - Qualification

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