Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Postponed

JS El Biar vs ASO Chlef

Alin prediction JS El Biar to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JS El BiarDrawASO Chlef
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.85.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

JS El Biar vs ASO Chlef: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJS El BiarDrawASO Chlef
Model66%21%13%
Market———
Published66%21%13%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

JS El Biar and ASO Chlef expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.02JS El Biar
0.85ASO Chlef
Total expected goals
2.87
Attack rating (JS El Biar / ASO Chlef)
1.19 / 0.81
Defence rating (JS El Biar / ASO Chlef)
1.17 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

JS El Biar vs ASO Chlef score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 3.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1 10.5% 10.7% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.6% 9.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 3 7.8% 6.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 6.3% 5.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: JS El Biar goals. Columns: ASO Chlef goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

JS El Biar vs ASO Chlef goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for JS El Biar vs ASO Chlef

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2JS El Biar66%1.52
Draw21%4.72
ASO Chlef13%7.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.74
Under 2.542%2.36
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.07
Double chance1X (JS El Biar or draw)87%1.15
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or ASO Chlef)34%2.93
Handicap -1JS El Biar win by 2+40%2.49
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

JS El Biar and ASO Chlef recent form

JS El Biar 2W 2D 2L
ASO Chlef 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

JS El Biar at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

ASO Chlef away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: JS El Biar at home only, ASO Chlef away only.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match