Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Postponed

US Biskra vs MB Rouisset

· 18 February Stadium, Biskra

Alin prediction MB Rouisset to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
US BiskraDrawMB Rouisset
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.64.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

US Biskra vs MB Rouisset: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUS BiskraDrawMB Rouisset
Model18%33%49%
Market———
Published18%33%49%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.64.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

US Biskra and MB Rouisset expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.64US Biskra
1.13MB Rouisset
Total expected goals
1.76
Attack rating (US Biskra / MB Rouisset)
0.65 / 0.93
Defence rating (US Biskra / MB Rouisset)
1.35 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

US Biskra vs MB Rouisset score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.4% 18.1% 10.9% 4.1% 1.5% 1 9.7% 13.5% 6.9% 2.6% 0.9% 2 3.5% 3.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 3 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: US Biskra goals. Columns: MB Rouisset goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

US Biskra vs MB Rouisset goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%
Over 1.5 54%
Over 2.5 26%
Over 3.5 10%
Both teams to score
33%
No goals (0–0)
18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for US Biskra vs MB Rouisset

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2US Biskra18%5.62
Draw33%3.02
MB Rouisset49%2.04
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.527%3.67
Under 2.573%1.37
Both teams to scoreYes33%3.01
No67%1.50
Double chance1X (US Biskra or draw)51%1.96
12 (either side)67%1.50
X2 (draw or MB Rouisset)82%1.22
Handicap -1MB Rouisset win by 2+20%4.94
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

US Biskra and MB Rouisset recent form

US Biskra 0W 2D 4L
MB Rouisset 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

US Biskra at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

MB Rouisset away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: US Biskra at home only, MB Rouisset away only.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match