Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Postponed

Khenchela vs ES Setif

Alin prediction Khenchela to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KhenchelaDrawES Setif
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Khenchela vs ES Setif: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKhenchelaDrawES Setif
Model36%32%32%
Market———
Published36%32%32%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Khenchela and ES Setif expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.00Khenchela
1.17ES Setif
Total expected goals
2.17
Attack rating (Khenchela / ES Setif)
0.77 / 1.19
Defence rating (Khenchela / ES Setif)
1.10 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Khenchela vs ES Setif score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.7% 12.0% 7.8% 3.1% 1.2% 1 10.0% 14.7% 7.8% 3.1% 1.2% 2 5.7% 6.7% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6% 3 1.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Khenchela goals. Columns: ES Setif goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Khenchela vs ES Setif goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Khenchela vs ES Setif

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Khenchela36%2.80
Draw32%3.09
ES Setif32%3.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.78
Under 2.564%1.56
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.25
No56%1.80
Double chance1X (Khenchela or draw)68%1.47
12 (either side)68%1.48
X2 (draw or ES Setif)64%1.56
Handicap -1Khenchela win by 2+12%8.66
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Khenchela and ES Setif recent form

Khenchela 1W 1D 4L
ES Setif 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Khenchela at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

ES Setif away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Khenchela at home only, ES Setif away only.

Khenchela vs ES Setif head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Khenchela 0 · draws 1 · ES Setif 1.

KhenchelaDrawsES Setif
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-23ES Setif4-1KhenchelaAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-08-23Khenchela1-1ES SetifAlgeria Ligue 1

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match