Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 11Postponed

Olympique Akbou vs Témouchent

Alin prediction Olympique Akbou to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Olympique AkbouDrawTémouchent
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.62.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Olympique Akbou vs Témouchent: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOlympique AkbouDrawTémouchent
Model55%30%16%
Market———
Published55%30%16%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.62.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Olympique Akbou and Témouchent expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Olympique Akbou
0.62Témouchent
Total expected goals
1.89
Attack rating (Olympique Akbou / Témouchent)
0.95 / 0.84
Defence rating (Olympique Akbou / Témouchent)
0.82 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olympique Akbou vs Témouchent score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.2% 8.1% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 1 18.0% 13.0% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 2 12.3% 7.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 3 5.2% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Olympique Akbou goals. Columns: Témouchent goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olympique Akbou vs Témouchent goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%
Over 1.5 58%
Over 2.5 29%
Over 3.5 12%
Both teams to score
38%
No goals (0–0)
16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olympique Akbou vs Témouchent

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Olympique Akbou55%1.83
Draw30%3.39
Témouchent16%6.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.91
Under 2.566%1.52
Both teams to scoreYes38%2.66
No62%1.60
Double chance1X (Olympique Akbou or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Témouchent)45%2.20
Handicap -1Olympique Akbou win by 2+25%4.05
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Olympique Akbou and Témouchent recent form

Olympique Akbou 2W 2D 2L
Témouchent 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Olympique Akbou at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Témouchent away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Olympique Akbou at home only, Témouchent away only.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match