Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers preview
In the match between Macarthur and Western Sydney Wanderers, the 1X2 probabilities show Macarthur at 42%, while the Wanderers sit at 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with an 8% chance of occurring. Macarthur's expected goals are 2.23, compared to the Wanderers' 1.66, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Macarthur has a mixed record with D-W-W-L-L-W, while Western Sydney Wanderers have struggled, recording W-D-L-L-L-L. With a 75% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 73% likelihood for both teams to score, the match could see multiple goals, but the Wanderers' form raises questions about their ability to compete effectively.
Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Macarthur | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 22% | 28% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Published | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Macarthur below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Macarthur, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur | 2.30 | 2.42 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.70 | -0.02 |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 2.75 | 2.64 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Macarthur and Western Sydney Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.90
- Attack rating (Macarthur / Western Sydney Wanderers)
- 1.17 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Macarthur / Western Sydney Wanderers)
- 1.22 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Macarthur goals. Columns: Western Sydney Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macarthur | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 | |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Macarthur or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Western Sydney Wanderers) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Macarthur win by 2+ | 31% | 3.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Macarthur and Western Sydney Wanderers recent form
Macarthur
3W 1D 2L
Western Sydney Wanderers
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Macarthur at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Western Sydney Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Macarthur at home only, Western Sydney Wanderers away only.
Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Macarthur 1 · draws 1 · Western Sydney Wanderers 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Macarthur | 0-4 | Western Sydney Wanderers | A-League |
| 2026-01-01 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 0-1 | Macarthur | A-League |
| 2025-11-01 | Macarthur | 1-1 | Western Sydney Wanderers | A-League |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Brisbane Roar v Auckland — match page 2026-10-30
- Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Melbourne City vs Sydney 2026-10-31
- Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Perth Glory vs Adelaide United 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Macarthur, previous: Newcastle Jets – Macarthur, 2026-10-24
- Western Sydney Wanderers, previous: Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland analysis