Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners preview
In the A-League fixture between Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners, the 1X2 probabilities show Melbourne Victory at 62%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 10%. Melbourne Victory has an expected goals figure of 2.04, compared to Central Coast Mariners' 1.08.
However, the recent form indicates Melbourne Victory has drawn twice and lost once in their last six matches, while Central Coast Mariners have lost three of their last six. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making the predictions less reliable. The model also suggests a 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score, which adds another layer to consider in this matchup.
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners: model vs market
| Source | Melbourne Victory | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Published | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.08.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Melbourne Victory, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory | 1.52 | 1.43 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 4.53 | 4.65 | +0.12 |
| Central Coast Mariners | 5.50 | 6.20 | +0.70 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Melbourne Victory / Central Coast Mariners)
- 1.09 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Melbourne Victory / Central Coast Mariners)
- 0.92 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Melbourne Victory goals. Columns: Central Coast Mariners goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Melbourne Victory | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Central Coast Mariners | 16% | 6.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.71 |
| No | 41% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Melbourne Victory or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Central Coast Mariners) | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Melbourne Victory win by 2+ | 36% | 2.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners recent form
Melbourne Victory
1W 3D 2L
Central Coast Mariners
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Melbourne Victory at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Central Coast Mariners away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Melbourne Victory at home only, Central Coast Mariners away only.
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Melbourne Victory 1 · draws 0 · Central Coast Mariners 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Melbourne Victory | 4-1 | Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| 2026-02-01 | Central Coast Mariners | 1-0 | Melbourne Victory | A-League |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Brisbane Roar v Auckland — match page 2026-10-30
- Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Melbourne City vs Sydney 2026-10-31
- Macarthur v Western Sydney Wanderers — match page 2026-10-31
- Perth Glory vs Adelaide United 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Melbourne Victory, previous: Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City: odds and pick
- Central Coast Mariners, previous: Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners prediction