Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction & Betting Tips 31/10/2026

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix preview

In the upcoming match between Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix, the 1X2 probabilities show Newcastle Jets at 50% to win, while Wellington Phoenix sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring.

Newcastle Jets have struggled recently, recording four draws and one win in their last six matches. In contrast, Wellington Phoenix has been more consistent with four wins in their last six. Despite Newcastle's historical advantage with 2 wins in their last 2 encounters, their recent form could impact the outcome, particularly if Wellington can capitalize on their scoring opportunities. The model suggests a 58% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Newcastle Jets	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
Model	54%	25%	21%
Market	48%	24%	28%
Published	49%	24%	26%
Edge	+1%	0%	-2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.10.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded 2026-10-26 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Newcastle Jets, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-22.

Opened 2.00Now 1.96 -0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Newcastle Jets	2.00	1.96	-0.04
Draw	3.85	3.88	+0.03
Wellington Phoenix	3.25	3.38	+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Newcastle Jets

1.10Wellington Phoenix

Total expected goals: 2.94
Attack rating (Newcastle Jets / Wellington Phoenix): 1.14 / 0.93
Defence rating (Newcastle Jets / Wellington Phoenix): 0.90 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 4.8% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 1 8.7% 11.8% 5.9% 2.2% 0.8% 2 9.0% 9.8% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 3 5.5% 6.0% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 3.8% 4.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Newcastle Jets goals. Columns: Wellington Phoenix goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Newcastle Jets	49%	2.03
	Draw	24%	4.09
	Wellington Phoenix	26%	3.81
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.78
	Under 2.5	44%	2.29
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.75
	No	43%	2.33
Double chance	1X (Newcastle Jets or draw)	74%	1.36
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Wellington Phoenix)	51%	1.97
Handicap -1	Newcastle Jets win by 2+	31%	3.21
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer