Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets preview
In the A-League fixture between Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets, the 1X2 probabilities show Perth Glory at 41%, Newcastle Jets at 34%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Perth Glory has an expected goals figure of 1.71, while Newcastle Jets sits at 1.31.
Perth Glory's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, while Newcastle Jets has struggled with 4 draws and 1 win. The model suggests a 58% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets: model vs market
| Source | Perth Glory | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Published | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Perth Glory, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perth Glory | 2.83 | 2.38 | -0.46 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.80 | +0.07 |
| Newcastle Jets | 2.25 | 2.62 | +0.37 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Perth Glory / Newcastle Jets)
- 1.11 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Perth Glory / Newcastle Jets)
- 0.99 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Perth Glory goals. Columns: Newcastle Jets goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Perth Glory | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Newcastle Jets | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Perth Glory or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Newcastle Jets) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Perth Glory win by 2+ | 25% | 3.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets recent form
Perth Glory
3W 1D 2L
Newcastle Jets
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Perth Glory at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Newcastle Jets away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Perth Glory at home only, Newcastle Jets away only.
Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Perth Glory 2 · draws 5 · Newcastle Jets 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Perth Glory | 1-3 | Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| 2025-11-23 | Newcastle Jets | 1-2 | Perth Glory | A-League |
| 2025-01-25 | Newcastle Jets | 2-2 | Perth Glory | A-League |
| 2024-12-14 | Perth Glory | 0-4 | Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| 2024-10-02 | Perth Glory | 2-0 | Newcastle Jets | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-09-29 | Perth Glory | 2-3 | Newcastle Jets | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-03-09 | Perth Glory | 2-2 | Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| 2023-12-16 | Newcastle Jets | 2-2 | Perth Glory | A-League |
| 2023-10-22 | Perth Glory | 2-2 | Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| 2023-03-18 | Newcastle Jets | 2-2 | Perth Glory | A-League |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Sydney v Central Coast Mariners — match page 2026-11-06
- Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers 2026-11-07
- Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Perth Glory, previous: Perth Glory vs Adelaide United: odds and pick
- Newcastle Jets, previous: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix: odds and pick