Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar Prediction & Betting Tips 08/11/2026

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar preview

In the match between Macarthur and Brisbane Roar, the 1X2 probabilities show Macarthur at 41%, while Brisbane Roar sits at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.80 for Macarthur and 1.45 for Brisbane Roar.

Both teams to score stands at 65%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 63%. Recent form indicates Macarthur has L-D-W-W-L-L, while Brisbane Roar has D-W-L-L-D-D. A potential issue for this prediction could be the teams' head-to-head record, which is evenly split with each having 1 win in their last 2 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Macarthur	Draw	Brisbane Roar
Model	48%	25%	27%
Market	39%	26%	35%
Published	41%	26%	33%
Edge	+2%	0%	-2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.34.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Macarthur below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded 2026-11-06 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Macarthur, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-29.

Opened 2.12Now 2.45 +0.33

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Macarthur	2.12	2.45	+0.33
Draw	3.59	3.58	-0.01
Brisbane Roar	3.11	2.71	-0.41

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Macarthur and Brisbane Roar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.82Macarthur

1.34Brisbane Roar

Total expected goals: 3.16
Attack rating (Macarthur / Brisbane Roar): 1.07 / 0.93
Defence rating (Macarthur / Brisbane Roar): 1.11 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 4.6% 3.8% 1.7% 0.8% 1 6.7% 11.4% 6.9% 3.1% 1.4% 2 7.0% 9.4% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 4.3% 5.7% 3.8% 1.7% 0.8% 4+ 2.9% 3.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5%

Rows: Macarthur goals. Columns: Brisbane Roar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Macarthur	41%	2.45
	Draw	26%	3.84
	Brisbane Roar	33%	3.03
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.63
	Under 2.5	39%	2.58
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.59
	No	37%	2.70
Double chance	1X (Macarthur or draw)	67%	1.49
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Brisbane Roar)	59%	1.69
Handicap -1	Macarthur win by 2+	27%	3.71
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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