Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory preview
In the A-League fixture between Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory, the 1X2 probabilities show Melbourne Victory at 40%, while Adelaide United sits at 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The expected goals are 1.32 for Adelaide United and 1.67 for Melbourne Victory, indicating a close match.
Both teams to score has a 61% probability, and there is a 57% chance of Over 2.5 goals. However, Adelaide United's recent form of L-L-L-D-W-W could impact their performance, while Melbourne Victory's D-D-L-L-W-D shows inconsistency as well.
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory: model vs market
| Source | Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.32.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Melbourne Victory, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide United | 2.55 | 2.83 | +0.29 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Melbourne Victory | 2.55 | 2.30 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Adelaide United / Melbourne Victory)
- 0.96 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Adelaide United / Melbourne Victory)
- 1.19 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Adelaide United goals. Columns: Melbourne Victory goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Adelaide United | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Melbourne Victory | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Adelaide United or draw) | 58% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Melbourne Victory) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Melbourne Victory win by 2+ | 24% | 4.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory recent form
Adelaide United
2W 1D 3L
Melbourne Victory
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Melbourne Victory away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Adelaide United at home only, Melbourne Victory away only.
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Adelaide United 1 · draws 1 · Melbourne Victory 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Melbourne Victory | 1-1 | Adelaide United | A-League |
| 2026-01-17 | Adelaide United | 2-1 | Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| 2025-12-13 | Melbourne Victory | 2-1 | Adelaide United | A-League |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Adelaide United, previous: Perth Glory vs Adelaide United: odds and pick
- Melbourne Victory, previous: Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners analysis