Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix preview
Auckland faces Wellington Phoenix with a 43% chance of winning compared to 30% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time according to our model. Auckland's expected goals stand at 1.60, while Wellington Phoenix has 1.38.
Auckland's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Wellington Phoenix has 3 wins and 3 losses. The model suggests a 57% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score. However, if Wellington Phoenix's recent form improves, it could challenge Auckland's dominance, as they have lost all 6 of their last head-to-head encounters.
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix: model vs market
| Source | Auckland | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 30% |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Auckland, 17 snapshots since 2026-10-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 1.91 | 2.15 | +0.24 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.51 | -0.12 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 3.67 | 3.15 | -0.52 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Auckland and Wellington Phoenix expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Auckland / Wellington Phoenix)
- 1.13 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Auckland / Wellington Phoenix)
- 1.01 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Auckland goals. Columns: Wellington Phoenix goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auckland | 43% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Wellington Phoenix | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Auckland or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Wellington Phoenix) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Auckland win by 2+ | 22% | 4.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Auckland and Wellington Phoenix recent form
Auckland
3W 2D 1L
Wellington Phoenix
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Auckland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Wellington Phoenix away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Auckland at home only, Wellington Phoenix away only.
Injuries & availability
Auckland absences
-
A. Calver
ankle injury
-
C. Howieson
calf injury
-
O. Middleton
knee injury
Wellington Phoenix absences
-
F. Conchie
inactive
-
I. Hughes
inactive
-
J. Smith
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Auckland 6 · draws 0 · Wellington Phoenix 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Wellington Phoenix | 0-5 | Auckland | A-League |
| 2025-12-06 | Auckland | 3-1 | Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| 2025-11-08 | Wellington Phoenix | 1-2 | Auckland | A-League |
| 2025-02-22 | Auckland | 6-1 | Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| 2024-12-07 | Auckland | 2-1 | Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| 2024-11-02 | Wellington Phoenix | 0-2 | Auckland | A-League |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Sydney v Central Coast Mariners — match page 2026-11-06
- Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers 2026-11-07
- Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets — match page 2026-11-07
- Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Auckland, previous: Brisbane Roar v Auckland analysis
- Wellington Phoenix, previous: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix: odds and pick