Updated

A-League · Matchday 4

Sydney vs Central Coast Mariners

· Allianz Stadium, Sydney· Referee Lachlan Keevers, Australia

Full time4 – 1

Alin prediction was Sydney to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SydneyDrawCentral Coast Mariners

Sydney vs Central Coast Mariners: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSydneyDrawCentral Coast Mariners
Model47%31%22%
Market62%22%16%
Published58%24%18%
Edge-4%+2%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.84.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sydney vs Central Coast Mariners odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sydney, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-29.

Opened 1.50Now 1.53 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sydney1.501.53+0.03
Draw4.374.33-0.04
Central Coast Mariners5.705.88+0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sydney and Central Coast Mariners expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.33Sydney
0.84Central Coast Mariners
Total expected goals
2.17
Attack rating (Sydney / Central Coast Mariners)
0.74 / 0.88
Defence rating (Sydney / Central Coast Mariners)
0.74 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sydney vs Central Coast Mariners score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.7% 8.3% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 1 13.9% 14.0% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.1% 8.5% 3.6% 1.0% 0.3% 3 4.4% 3.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 2.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Sydney goals. Columns: Central Coast Mariners goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sydney vs Central Coast Mariners goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sydney vs Central Coast Mariners

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sydney58%1.72
Draw24%4.15
Central Coast Mariners18%5.64
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537%2.71
Under 2.563%1.58
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.32
No57%1.76
Double chance1X (Sydney or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Central Coast Mariners)42%2.39
Handicap -1Sydney win by 2+23%4.42
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sydney and Central Coast Mariners recent form

Sydney 1W 3D 2L
Central Coast Mariners 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sydney at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Central Coast Mariners away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Sydney at home only, Central Coast Mariners away only.

Injuries & availability

Sydney absences

  • A. Walatee ankle injury
  • G. Hoefsloot wrist injury
  • J. Farrell groin injury
  • J. Hollman knock

Central Coast Mariners absences

  • T. Hisamatsu inactive
  • T. Sainsbury achilles tendon injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sydney lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Harrison Devenish-Meares
  2. 17 Ben Garuccio
  3. 4 Jordan Courtney-Perkins
  4. 41 Alexandar Popovic
  5. 23 Rhyan Grant
  6. 8 Wataru Kamijo
  7. 36 Rhys Youlley
  8. 7 Akol Akon
  9. 14 Takahiro Sekine
  10. 35 Al Hassan Toure
  11. 9 Oriola Sunday

Bench: Gus Hoefsloot, James Overy, Jacob Farrell, Gabriel Popovic, Tiago Quintal, Mathias Macallister, Joseph Lacey

Central Coast Mariners lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 30 Andrew Redmayne
  2. 5 Lucas Mauragis
  3. 12 Noah Mccann
  4. 3 Diesel Herrington
  5. 15 Storm Roux
  6. 22 Arthur De Lima
  7. 6 Haine Eames
  8. 8 Chris Donnell
  9. 72 Ali Auglah
  10. 9 Oliver Lavale
  11. 37 Bailey Brandtman

Bench: John-Kymani Gordon, Presley Ortiz, Alexander Bolton, Shumba Mutokoyi, Jesse Mantell, Jai Ajanovic, Ty Mckibbin

Sydney vs Central Coast Mariners head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sydney 6 · draws 2 · Central Coast Mariners 2.

SydneyDrawsCentral Coast Mariners
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-06Central Coast Mariners1-2SydneyA-League
2025-10-25Sydney2-0Central Coast MarinersA-League
2025-01-11Sydney4-1Central Coast MarinersA-League
2024-12-08Central Coast Mariners2-1SydneyA-League
2024-05-18Central Coast Mariners0-0SydneyA-League
2024-05-10Sydney1-2Central Coast MarinersA-League
2024-03-30Sydney2-0Central Coast MarinersA-League
2024-02-10Central Coast Mariners1-3SydneyA-League
2023-08-13Sydney3-3Central Coast MarinersAustralia Cup
2023-02-04Sydney3-2Central Coast MarinersA-League

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match