Perth Glory vs Adelaide United Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Perth Glory vs Adelaide United preview

In the A-League fixture between Perth Glory and Adelaide United, the 1X2 probabilities show Perth Glory at 36% and Adelaide United at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 60%, suggesting that scoring from both sides is likely.

Perth Glory's recent form includes 2 losses and 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Adelaide United has 2 losses and 2 wins in the same period. The expected goals indicate Perth Glory at 1.39 and Adelaide United at 1.50. A potential factor that could disrupt the predictions is the confidence grade of C, indicating uncertainty in the outcomes.

Perth Glory vs Adelaide United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Perth Glory	Draw	Adelaide United
Model	34%	27%	39%
Market	34%	26%	39%
Published	34%	27%	39%
Edge	0%	0%	0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded 2026-10-26 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Perth Glory vs Adelaide United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Adelaide United, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-22.

Opened 2.54Now 2.38 -0.17

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Perth Glory	2.60	2.74	+0.14
Draw	3.50	3.54	+0.04
Adelaide United	2.54	2.38	-0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Perth Glory and Adelaide United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Perth Glory

1.50Adelaide United

Total expected goals: 2.89
Attack rating (Perth Glory / Adelaide United): 0.91 / 1.05
Defence rating (Perth Glory / Adelaide United): 1.09 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Perth Glory vs Adelaide United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 7.2% 6.2% 3.1% 1.6% 1 6.6% 12.7% 8.7% 4.3% 2.3% 2 5.4% 8.1% 6.0% 3.0% 1.6% 3 2.5% 3.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Perth Glory goals. Columns: Adelaide United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Perth Glory vs Adelaide United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 55%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Perth Glory vs Adelaide United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Perth Glory	34%	2.93
	Draw	27%	3.76
	Adelaide United	39%	2.55
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55%	1.81
	Under 2.5	45%	2.23
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.68
	No	40%	2.47
Double chance	1X (Perth Glory or draw)	61%	1.64
	12 (either side)	73%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Adelaide United)	66%	1.52
Handicap -1	Adelaide United win by 2+	19%	5.18
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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