Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.11.
• The market prices Melbourne Victory below the model: +11.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Melbourne Victory, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

3.06

Attack rating (Wellington Phoenix / Melbourne Victory)

0.85 / 1.22

Defence rating (Wellington Phoenix / Melbourne Victory)

1.21 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Wellington Phoenix goals. Columns: Melbourne Victory goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

59%

No goals (0–0)

6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory recent form

Wellington Phoenix LWLWWW 4W 0D 2L

Melbourne Victory LWDDLW 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.