Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners preview

Wellington Phoenix face Central Coast Mariners with a 49% chance of winning and a predicted scoreline of 2-1, which has a 9% likelihood according to our model. The expected goals are 1.62 for Wellington Phoenix and 1.52 for Central Coast Mariners, suggesting a competitive match.

Both teams to score has a 64% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 61%. However, Wellington Phoenix's recent form shows inconsistency with three wins in their last six matches, while Central Coast Mariners have struggled, managing only one win in their last six. This could impact the match outcome and the scoring dynamics.

Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Wellington Phoenix	Draw	Central Coast Mariners
Model	39%	26%	35%
Market	52%	24%	24%
Published	49%	25%	27%
Edge	-12%	+1%	+11%

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded 2026-10-16 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.

Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Wellington Phoenix, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.85Now 1.80 -0.05

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Wellington Phoenix	1.85	1.80	-0.05
Draw	3.85	3.80	-0.05
Central Coast Mariners	3.85	3.90	+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.62Wellington Phoenix

1.52Central Coast Mariners

Total expected goals: 3.14
Attack rating (Wellington Phoenix / Central Coast Mariners): 0.89 / 0.99
Defence rating (Wellington Phoenix / Central Coast Mariners): 1.16 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 5.5% 5.0% 2.5% 1.3% 1 6.0% 11.7% 8.1% 4.1% 2.2% 2 5.7% 8.6% 6.6% 3.3% 1.8% 3 3.1% 4.7% 3.5% 1.8% 0.9% 4+ 1.8% 2.7% 2.1% 1.0% 0.6%

Rows: Wellington Phoenix goals. Columns: Central Coast Mariners goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 38%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Wellington Phoenix	49%	2.06
	Draw	25%	4.03
	Central Coast Mariners	27%	3.76
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.65
	Under 2.5	39%	2.54
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.57
	No	36%	2.75
Double chance	1X (Wellington Phoenix or draw)	73%	1.36
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Central Coast Mariners)	51%	1.95
Handicap -1	Wellington Phoenix win by 2+	20%	4.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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