Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory Prediction & Betting Tips 23/10/2026

Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory preview

In the A-League match between Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory, the 1X2 probabilities show Brisbane Roar at 41%, draw at 27%, and Perth Glory at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. Brisbane Roar's recent form includes 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, while Perth Glory has 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss.

The expected goals suggest Brisbane Roar will score 1.30 and Perth Glory 1.57. The model indicates a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade is C, which indicates some uncertainty in the predictions. This means any outcome could vary based on the teams' performances on the day.

Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Brisbane Roar	Draw	Perth Glory
Model	34%	27%	39%
Market	44%	27%	29%
Published	42%	27%	31%
Edge	-10%	+1%	+10%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded 2026-10-18 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brisbane Roar, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 2.10Now 2.10 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Brisbane Roar	2.10	2.10	+0.00
Draw	3.50	3.50	+0.00
Perth Glory	3.25	3.25	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.38Brisbane Roar

1.48Perth Glory

Total expected goals: 2.86
Attack rating (Brisbane Roar / Perth Glory): 0.86 / 0.92
Defence rating (Brisbane Roar / Perth Glory): 1.21 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 7.3% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 1 6.7% 12.9% 8.7% 4.3% 2.2% 2 5.5% 8.1% 6.0% 2.9% 1.5% 3 2.5% 3.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Brisbane Roar goals. Columns: Perth Glory goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Brisbane Roar	42%	2.39
	Draw	27%	3.72
	Perth Glory	31%	3.20
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.84
	Under 2.5	46%	2.20
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.70
	No	41%	2.44
Double chance	1X (Brisbane Roar or draw)	69%	1.45
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Perth Glory)	58%	1.72
Handicap -1	Brisbane Roar win by 2+	16%	6.23
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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