Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur preview

Newcastle Jets face Macarthur with a 50% chance for the Jets to win and a predicted scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The Jets have an expected goals figure of 2.44, while Macarthur sits at 1.37. This suggests a strong offensive display from Newcastle, but recent form shows they have drawn three of their last five matches, which could impact their ability to secure a win.

Both teams to score has a 69% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 73%. Macarthur's recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, indicating they could pose a challenge. If the Jets struggle to convert their chances, the predicted outcome may not hold.

Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Newcastle Jets	Draw	Macarthur
Model	58%	21%	22%
Market	47%	24%	29%
Published	50%	23%	27%
Edge	+11%	-3%	-7%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.46.
The market prices Newcastle Jets below the model: +10.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded 2026-10-18 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Newcastle Jets, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 2.00Now 2.00 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Newcastle Jets	2.00	2.00	+0.00
Draw	3.90	3.91	+0.01
Macarthur	3.25	3.21	-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Newcastle Jets and Macarthur expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.40Newcastle Jets

1.46Macarthur

Total expected goals: 3.85
Attack rating (Newcastle Jets / Macarthur): 1.23 / 1.20
Defence rating (Newcastle Jets / Macarthur): 0.92 / 1.30

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.6% 1 4.3% 8.1% 5.4% 2.6% 1.3% 2 6.1% 8.9% 6.5% 3.1% 1.6% 3 4.9% 7.1% 5.2% 2.5% 1.3% 4+ 5.1% 7.5% 5.4% 2.6% 1.3%

Rows: Newcastle Jets goals. Columns: Macarthur goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 74%

Over 3.5 54%

Both teams to score: 70%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Newcastle Jets	50%	2.02
	Draw	23%	4.32
	Macarthur	27%	3.66
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74%	1.35
	Under 2.5	26%	3.84
Both teams to score	Yes	70%	1.42
	No	30%	3.39
Double chance	1X (Newcastle Jets or draw)	73%	1.38
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Macarthur)	50%	1.98
Handicap -1	Newcastle Jets win by 2+	37%	2.68
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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