Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Salzburg preview
Wacker Innsbruck faces Austria Salzburg with a 50% probability of winning, while Austria Salzburg has a 26% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which reflects Wacker Innsbruck's expected goals of 1.96 compared to Austria Salzburg's 1.39.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 65%, suggesting an expectation of a lively match. However, Wacker Innsbruck's recent form shows two draws followed by three wins, while Austria Salzburg has struggled with four losses in their last six matches. This disparity in form could affect the outcome.
Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Salzburg: model vs market
| Source | Wacker Innsbruck | Draw | Austria Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Wacker Innsbruck and Austria Salzburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Wacker Innsbruck / Austria Salzburg)
- 1.08 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Wacker Innsbruck / Austria Salzburg)
- 0.91 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Salzburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wacker Innsbruck goals. Columns: Austria Salzburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Salzburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Salzburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wacker Innsbruck | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Austria Salzburg | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wacker Innsbruck or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Austria Salzburg) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wacker Innsbruck win by 2+ | 29% | 3.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Wacker Innsbruck and Austria Salzburg recent form
Wacker Innsbruck
3W 2D 1L
Austria Salzburg
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wacker Innsbruck at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Austria Salzburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wacker Innsbruck at home only, Austria Salzburg away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- SKN ST. Polten vs Rapid Wien II 2026-10-16
- Austria Vienna (Am) vs WSPG Wels — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Voitsberg vs First Vienna 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Wacker Innsbruck, previous: Rapid Wien II v Wacker Innsbruck analysis
- Austria Salzburg, previous: Austria Salzburg – Floridsdorfer AC, 2026-10-10