Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 12

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK

· Planet Pure Stadion, Lustenau· Referee Markus Greinecker

Alin prediction Austria Lustenau to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Austria LustenauDrawGrazer AK
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.59.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Austria Lustenau2.75 Draw3.56 Grazer AK2.50

Price as of

Expected return at 2.75: +13.4% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK preview

In the Austria Bundesliga fixture, Austria Lustenau faces Grazer AK with both teams having a 38% chance to win according to our model. The expected goals show Austria Lustenau at 2.81 and Grazer AK at 1.43, suggesting a likely scoreline of 2-1, which has an 8% probability.

However, recent form indicates Austria Lustenau has won 2 of their last 6 matches, while Grazer AK has not won in their last 6, with 4 draws. The high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 80% and both teams to score at 72% could be impacted by either team's performance on the day or defensive errors.

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAustria LustenauDrawGrazer AK
Model60%19%21%
Market35%27%38%
Published41%25%34%
Edge+6%-2%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.59.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Austria Lustenau below our published probability: +6.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +13.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Austria Lustenau, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 3.20Now 2.67 -0.53
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Austria Lustenau3.202.67-0.53
Draw3.523.48-0.04
Grazer AK2.072.44+0.37

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.68Austria Lustenau
1.59Grazer AK
Total expected goals
4.27
Attack rating (Austria Lustenau / Grazer AK)
1.15 / 0.72
Defence rating (Austria Lustenau / Grazer AK)
1.72 / 1.51

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 1 3.1% 6.5% 4.7% 2.5% 1.4% 2 5.0% 8.0% 6.4% 3.4% 1.9% 3 4.5% 7.1% 5.7% 3.0% 1.7% 4+ 5.7% 9.1% 7.3% 3.9% 2.2%

Rows: Austria Lustenau goals. Columns: Grazer AK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Austria Lustenau41%2.43
Draw25%4.03
Grazer AK34%2.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%4.98
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.34
No25%3.97
Double chance1X (Austria Lustenau or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Grazer AK)59%1.70
Handicap -1Austria Lustenau win by 2+41%2.45
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK recent form

Austria Lustenau 2W 0D 4L
Grazer AK 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Austria Lustenau at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Grazer AK away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-4
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
3.33
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Austria Lustenau at home only, Grazer AK away only.

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Austria Lustenau 2 · draws 2 · Grazer AK 3.

Austria LustenauDrawsGrazer AK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-08Grazer AK2-1Austria LustenauAustria Bundesliga
2021-11-26Grazer AK0-0Austria Lustenau2. Liga
2021-07-25Austria Lustenau2-1Grazer AK2. Liga
2021-05-12Grazer AK2-0Austria Lustenau2. Liga
2020-12-11Austria Lustenau3-1Grazer AK2. Liga
2020-06-06Grazer AK1-1Austria Lustenau2. Liga
2019-08-18Austria Lustenau0-2Grazer AK2. Liga

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Austria Lustenau to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Austria Lustenau
Our pick: Austria Lustenau to win 18+ Bet Now