Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau preview
In the match between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau, the 1X2 probabilities show Red Bull Salzburg at 78%, with a most likely scoreline of 3-1 (8%). The expected goals indicate a strong performance from Salzburg at 3.19, while Austria Lustenau sits at just 1.08. The model suggests an 80% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score.
However, Austria Lustenau's recent form includes two wins in their last five matches, which could challenge Salzburg's dominance. If Lustenau can improve their scoring, they might disrupt the expected outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau: model vs market
| Source | Red Bull Salzburg | Draw | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| Market | 79% | 13% | 7% |
| Published | 80% | 13% | 8% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.37 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Red Bull Salzburg, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg | 1.18 | 1.16 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 6.85 | 7.00 | +0.15 |
| Austria Lustenau | 12.10 | 12.38 | +0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.45
- Attack rating (Red Bull Salzburg / Austria Lustenau)
- 1.41 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Red Bull Salzburg / Austria Lustenau)
- 0.76 / 1.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Red Bull Salzburg goals. Columns: Austria Lustenau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 80% | 1.26 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.74 | |
| Austria Lustenau | 8% | 13.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Red Bull Salzburg or draw) | 92% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or Austria Lustenau) | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win by 2+ | 63% | 1.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau recent form
Red Bull Salzburg
3W 2D 1L
Austria Lustenau
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Red Bull Salzburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Austria Lustenau away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Red Bull Salzburg at home only, Austria Lustenau away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg 2026-10-30
- SCR Altach vs Ried 2026-10-31
- Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Wolfsberger AC v Sturm Graz — match page 2026-11-01
- Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Red Bull Salzburg, previous: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz – Red Bull Salzburg, 2026-10-28
- Red Bull Salzburg, next: Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg: odds and pick
- Austria Lustenau, previous: Austria Lustenau v Sturm Graz analysis