Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz preview
Wolfsberger AC faces Sturm Graz with a 19% chance of winning compared to Sturm Graz's 58%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 10% probability. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals each have a 54% chance according to our model.
Wolfsberger AC's recent form shows five losses and one draw, while Sturm Graz has two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This could impact the outcome if Wolfsberger AC finds a way to improve their performance. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz: model vs market
| Source | Wolfsberger AC | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 21% | 22% | 56% |
| Published | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sturm Graz, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 4.84 | 4.33 | -0.51 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.15 | -0.15 |
| Sturm Graz | 1.57 | 1.66 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Wolfsberger AC / Sturm Graz)
- 0.71 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Wolfsberger AC / Sturm Graz)
- 1.26 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wolfsberger AC goals. Columns: Sturm Graz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolfsberger AC | 21% | 4.76 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Sturm Graz | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wolfsberger AC or draw) | 44% | 2.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Sturm Graz) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz recent form
Wolfsberger AC
0W 1D 5L
Sturm Graz
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wolfsberger AC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Sturm Graz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wolfsberger AC at home only, Sturm Graz away only.
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 1 · draws 1 · Sturm Graz 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Wolfsberger AC | 2-2 | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-26 | Sturm Graz | 1-3 | Wolfsberger AC | Austria Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg 2026-10-30
- SCR Altach vs Ried 2026-10-31
- Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Red Bull Salzburg v Austria Lustenau — match page 2026-11-01
- Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Wolfsberger AC, previous: WSPG Wels v Wolfsberger AC analysis
- Sturm Graz, previous: Austria Lustenau v Sturm Graz analysis
- Sturm Graz, next: Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction