Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg preview
In the Austria Bundesliga fixture between Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg, the model gives Grazer AK a 46% chance to win and predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 (7%). The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is high at 79%, and both teams to score is also strong at 77%.
However, the recent form shows Grazer AK with 2 wins in their last 6 matches compared to TSV Hartberg's 4 wins. Additionally, in their last 2 head-to-head encounters, Grazer AK has not secured a win, with 1 draw and 1 loss against TSV Hartberg. This could challenge the model’s predictions, making the outcome less certain.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg: model vs market
| Source | Grazer AK | Draw | TSV Hartberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 43% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Grazer AK, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grazer AK | 1.89 | 2.03 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.50 | -0.14 |
| TSV Hartberg | 3.69 | 3.40 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (Grazer AK / TSV Hartberg)
- 0.93 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Grazer AK / TSV Hartberg)
- 1.21 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Grazer AK goals. Columns: TSV Hartberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grazer AK | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| TSV Hartberg | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Grazer AK or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or TSV Hartberg) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Grazer AK win by 2+ | 16% | 6.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg recent form
Grazer AK
2W 3D 1L
TSV Hartberg
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Grazer AK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
TSV Hartberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Grazer AK at home only, TSV Hartberg away only.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Grazer AK 0 · draws 1 · TSV Hartberg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | TSV Hartberg | 1-0 | Grazer AK | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-18 | Grazer AK | 0-0 | TSV Hartberg | Austria Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- SCR Altach vs Ried 2026-10-31
- Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Red Bull Salzburg v Austria Lustenau — match page 2026-11-01
- Wolfsberger AC v Sturm Graz — match page 2026-11-01
- Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Grazer AK, previous: Grazer AK vs SCR Altach: odds and pick
- TSV Hartberg, previous: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg: odds and pick