Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka preview
In the match between Čelik and Borac Banja Luka, the 1X2 probabilities show Borac Banja Luka at 49%, compared to Čelik's 22%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring 12% of the time according to our model. Čelik's expected goals stand at 0.91, while Borac Banja Luka's are at 1.47, indicating a potential struggle for Čelik to find the net.
While the forecast suggests a lower-scoring game, there is a 42% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. Čelik's recent form shows they have struggled, with only 1 win in their last 6 matches. In contrast, Borac Banja Luka has won 6 straight games, which could shift the match dynamics.
Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka: model vs market
| Source | Čelik | Draw | Borac Banja Luka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 29% | 51% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 20% | 29% | 51% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Čelik and Borac Banja Luka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Čelik / Borac Banja Luka)
- 0.85 / 1.48
- Defence rating (Čelik / Borac Banja Luka)
- 1.10 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Čelik goals. Columns: Borac Banja Luka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Čelik | 20% | 4.97 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Borac Banja Luka | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Čelik or draw) | 49% | 2.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Borac Banja Luka) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Borac Banja Luka win by 2+ | 27% | 3.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Čelik and Borac Banja Luka recent form
Čelik
1W 3D 2L
Borac Banja Luka
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Čelik at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Borac Banja Luka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Čelik at home only, Borac Banja Luka away only.
Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Čelik 0 · draws 0 · Borac Banja Luka 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Borac Banja Luka | 2-0 | Čelik | Premijer Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski 2026-10-31
- Radnik Bijeljina v Siroki Brijeg — match page 2026-10-31
- Sloga Doboj vs Velež 2026-10-31
- BSK Banja Luka v FK Sarajevo — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Čelik, previous: Siroki Brijeg vs Čelik prediction
- Borac Banja Luka, previous: Borac Banja Luka v Sloga Doboj analysis
- Borac Banja Luka, next: Mjallby AIF v Borac Banja Luka analysis