Velež vs Čelik preview
In the upcoming match between Velež and Čelik, the 1X2 probabilities show Velež at 49%, with Čelik at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model. Velež's expected goals are 1.37, while Čelik's are lower at 1.05.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating a reasonable chance that Čelik could find the net. Additionally, with Velež's recent form showing two losses in their last three matches, their performance could impact the outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Velež vs Čelik: model vs market
| Source | Velež | Draw | Čelik |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Market | 59% | 26% | 16% |
| Published | 55% | 27% | 19% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Velež vs Čelik odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Velež, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Velež | 1.75 | 1.53 | -0.22 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.50 | +0.25 |
| Čelik | 4.29 | 5.72 | +1.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Velež and Čelik expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Velež / Čelik)
- 0.77 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Velež / Čelik)
- 1.18 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Velež vs Čelik score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Velež goals. Columns: Čelik goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Velež vs Čelik goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Velež vs Čelik
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velež | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Čelik | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Velež or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Čelik) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Velež win by 2+ | 21% | 4.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Velež and Čelik recent form
Velež
2W 1D 3L
Čelik
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Velež at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Čelik away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Velež at home only, Čelik away only.
Velež vs Čelik head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Velež 1 · draws 0 · Čelik 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Čelik | 3-0 | Velež | Premijer Liga |
| 2019-10-25 | Čelik | 0-2 | Velež | Premijer Liga |
| 2019-08-03 | Velež | 1-2 | Čelik | Premijer Liga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2026-11-07
- Sloga Doboj vs BSK Banja Luka 2026-11-08
- Borac Banja Luka v Radnik Bijeljina — match page 2026-11-08
- Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Velež, previous: Sloga Doboj vs Velež: odds and pick
- Čelik, previous: Čelik v Borac Banja Luka analysis