Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo preview
In the upcoming match between Zrinjski and FK Sarajevo, Zrinjski has a 58% chance of winning compared to FK Sarajevo's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 17% probability. Zrinjski's expected goals stand at 1.74, while FK Sarajevo's is only 0.51.
However, the match could see different outcomes if both teams manage to find the net, as the model suggests a 34% chance for both teams to score. Additionally, while Over 2.5 goals has a 39% probability, the recent form shows Zrinjski winning their last 5 matches, while FK Sarajevo has had mixed results with 2 wins in their last 5.
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo: model vs market
| Source | Zrinjski | Draw | FK Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 24% | 9% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.51.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Zrinjski below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Zrinjski, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zrinjski | 1.61 | 1.62 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.41 | +0.03 |
| FK Sarajevo | 5.03 | 4.88 | -0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Zrinjski and FK Sarajevo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (Zrinjski / FK Sarajevo)
- 1.95 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Zrinjski / FK Sarajevo)
- 0.63 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zrinjski goals. Columns: FK Sarajevo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zrinjski | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| FK Sarajevo | 16% | 6.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.94 |
| No | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zrinjski or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or FK Sarajevo) | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zrinjski win by 2+ | 40% | 2.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Zrinjski and FK Sarajevo recent form
Zrinjski
5W 0D 1L
FK Sarajevo
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zrinjski at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 11 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Sarajevo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zrinjski at home only, FK Sarajevo away only.
Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Zrinjski 3 · draws 4 · FK Sarajevo 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | FK Sarajevo | 0-1 | Zrinjski | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-07-04 | Zrinjski | 2-1 | FK Sarajevo | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-04-11 | FK Sarajevo | 2-1 | Zrinjski | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-03-18 | Zrinjski | 0-0 | FK Sarajevo | Super Cup |
| 2025-12-14 | Zrinjski | 0-1 | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-10-06 | FK Sarajevo | 1-1 | Zrinjski | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-09-10 | Zrinjski | 2-0 | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-04-11 | FK Sarajevo | 0-0 | Zrinjski | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-03-11 | Zrinjski | 0-1 | FK Sarajevo | Cup |
| 2025-02-25 | FK Sarajevo | 1-1 | Zrinjski | Cup |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Velež vs Čelik — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2026-11-07
- Sloga Doboj vs BSK Banja Luka 2026-11-08
- Borac Banja Luka v Radnik Bijeljina — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Zrinjski, previous: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski prediction
- FK Sarajevo, previous: BSK Banja Luka vs FK Sarajevo prediction