Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski preview
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo hosts Zrinjski with a 58% probability of the visitors winning, compared to 18% for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with Zrinjski's expected goals of 1.87, significantly higher than Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's 0.97.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals each sit at 54%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match. However, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's recent form shows 4 draws in their last 5 matches, which could disrupt Zrinjski's momentum, as they come off 4 wins in their last 5. This match has a confidence grade of C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski: model vs market
| Source | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Draw | Zrinjski |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Zrinjski expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo / Zrinjski)
- 0.94 / 1.82
- Defence rating (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo / Zrinjski)
- 1.17 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals. Columns: Zrinjski goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 16% | 6.36 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Zrinjski | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw) | 39% | 2.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Zrinjski) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zrinjski win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Zrinjski recent form
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1W 3D 2L
Zrinjski
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
Zrinjski away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home only, Zrinjski away only.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1 · draws 0 · Zrinjski 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Zrinjski | 2-0 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-05-01 | Zrinjski | 2-0 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-03-02 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 1-3 | Zrinjski | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-11-09 | Zrinjski | 2-1 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-08-24 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 2-0 | Zrinjski | Premijer Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Radnik Bijeljina v Siroki Brijeg — match page 2026-10-31
- Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Sloga Doboj vs Velež 2026-10-31
- BSK Banja Luka v FK Sarajevo — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, previous: FK Sarajevo – Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, 2026-10-24
- Zrinjski, previous: Zrinjski vs Radnik Bijeljina: odds and pick