Updated

Premijer Liga · Matchday 12

Radnik Bijeljina vs Siroki Brijeg

· Gradski stadion Bijeljina, Bijeljina

Alin prediction Radnik Bijeljina to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Radnik BijeljinaDrawSiroki Brijeg
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Radnik Bijeljina vs Siroki Brijeg preview

Radnik Bijeljina faces Siroki Brijeg with 36% and 35% probabilities to win, respectively. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time in our model. Both teams to score stands at 55%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 50%.

Radnik Bijeljina's recent form shows L-D-W-D-L-L, while Siroki Brijeg has D-W-D-L-D-L. The expected goals are close, with Radnik Bijeljina at 1.35 and Siroki Brijeg at 1.32. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty. Factors like team form or injuries could influence the outcome.

Radnik Bijeljina vs Siroki Brijeg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRadnik BijeljinaDrawSiroki Brijeg
Model37%29%35%
Market———
Published37%29%35%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Radnik Bijeljina and Siroki Brijeg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Radnik Bijeljina
1.31Siroki Brijeg
Total expected goals
2.66
Attack rating (Radnik Bijeljina / Siroki Brijeg)
1.13 / 0.97
Defence rating (Radnik Bijeljina / Siroki Brijeg)
1.47 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Radnik Bijeljina vs Siroki Brijeg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.2% 7.9% 6.0% 2.6% 1.1% 1 8.2% 13.6% 8.1% 3.5% 1.5% 2 6.4% 8.3% 5.5% 2.4% 1.0% 3 2.9% 3.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Radnik Bijeljina goals. Columns: Siroki Brijeg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Radnik Bijeljina vs Siroki Brijeg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Radnik Bijeljina vs Siroki Brijeg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Radnik Bijeljina37%2.73
Draw29%3.51
Siroki Brijeg35%2.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.02
Under 2.550%1.98
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.81
No45%2.24
Double chance1X (Radnik Bijeljina or draw)65%1.54
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Siroki Brijeg)63%1.58
Handicap -1Radnik Bijeljina win by 2+17%5.82
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Radnik Bijeljina and Siroki Brijeg recent form

Radnik Bijeljina 1W 2D 3L
Siroki Brijeg 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Radnik Bijeljina at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
2.20
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Siroki Brijeg away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Radnik Bijeljina at home only, Siroki Brijeg away only.

Radnik Bijeljina vs Siroki Brijeg head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Radnik Bijeljina 2 · draws 1 · Siroki Brijeg 2.

Radnik BijeljinaDrawsSiroki Brijeg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-22Siroki Brijeg2-1Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
2026-05-25Siroki Brijeg4-0Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
2026-04-04Radnik Bijeljina2-0Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
2025-12-08Siroki Brijeg1-3Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
2025-09-26Radnik Bijeljina0-0Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Radnik Bijeljina to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Radnik Bijeljina