Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo preview
In the fixture between Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, the 1X2 probabilities show Siroki Brijeg at 51%, while Zeljeznicar Sarajevo sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance. Siroki Brijeg has an expected goals figure of 1.66, compared to 0.75 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
Recent form indicates Siroki Brijeg has L-D-W-D-L-D, and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo has L-L-D-L-D-D. Both teams to score stands at 44%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 43%. A potential factor that could influence the outcome is the recent performance of both teams, particularly Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's struggle to secure wins.
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo: model vs market
| Source | Siroki Brijeg | Draw | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Market | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Siroki Brijeg below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Siroki Brijeg, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siroki Brijeg | 1.85 | 1.90 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.12 | -0.06 |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 3.88 | 3.76 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Siroki Brijeg / Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
- 0.90 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Siroki Brijeg / Zeljeznicar Sarajevo)
- 0.98 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Siroki Brijeg goals. Columns: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Siroki Brijeg | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Siroki Brijeg or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Zeljeznicar Sarajevo) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Siroki Brijeg win by 2+ | 33% | 3.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Siroki Brijeg and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo recent form
Siroki Brijeg
1W 3D 2L
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Siroki Brijeg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Siroki Brijeg at home only, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away only.
Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Siroki Brijeg 4 · draws 4 · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 1-1 | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-05-21 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 2-2 | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-03-22 | Siroki Brijeg | 1-1 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-12-04 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 3-3 | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-09-21 | Siroki Brijeg | 1-0 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-05-18 | Siroki Brijeg | 3-2 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-04-16 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 1-0 | Siroki Brijeg | Cup |
| 2025-04-02 | Siroki Brijeg | 3-0 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Cup |
| 2024-11-03 | Siroki Brijeg | 0-3 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| 2024-08-03 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 0-1 | Siroki Brijeg | Premijer Liga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Velež vs Čelik — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Sloga Doboj vs BSK Banja Luka 2026-11-08
- Borac Banja Luka v Radnik Bijeljina — match page 2026-11-08
- Zrinjski vs FK Sarajevo — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Siroki Brijeg, previous: Radnik Bijeljina – Siroki Brijeg, 2026-10-31
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, previous: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski prediction