Čelik vs Zrinjski preview
In the upcoming match between Čelik and Zrinjski, the 1X2 probabilities show Čelik at 24%, a draw at 26%, and Zrinjski at 50%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Zrinjski's stronger expected goals of 1.76 compared to Čelik's 1.16.
Both teams to score stands at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 56%. Čelik's recent form includes two draws and three wins, while Zrinjski has won six of their last seven matches. This could influence the outcome, as Zrinjski has a solid head-to-head record with 1 win against Čelik in their last encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Čelik vs Zrinjski: model vs market
| Source | Čelik | Draw | Zrinjski |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Čelik and Zrinjski expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Čelik / Zrinjski)
- 1.05 / 1.81
- Defence rating (Čelik / Zrinjski)
- 1.06 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Čelik vs Zrinjski score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Čelik goals. Columns: Zrinjski goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Čelik vs Zrinjski goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Čelik vs Zrinjski
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Čelik | 24% | 4.17 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Zrinjski | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Čelik or draw) | 50% | 2.01 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Zrinjski) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zrinjski win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Čelik and Zrinjski recent form
Čelik
2W 3D 1L
Zrinjski
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Čelik at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zrinjski away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Čelik at home only, Zrinjski away only.
Čelik vs Zrinjski head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Čelik 0 · draws 0 · Zrinjski 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Zrinjski | 2-1 | Čelik | Premijer Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sloga Doboj vs Siroki Brijeg — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- BSK Banja Luka vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2026-10-17
- Radnik Bijeljina vs FK Sarajevo — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Velež v Borac Banja Luka — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Čelik, previous: Čelik v FK Sarajevo analysis
- Zrinjski, previous: Sloga Doboj – Zrinjski, 2026-10-11