Aarhus vs AC Horsens preview
Aarhus faces AC Horsens with a 41% chance of winning compared to 33% for AC Horsens. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. The model suggests a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 63%.
Aarhus has shown better recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while AC Horsens has 1 win in their last 6. Despite Aarhus's head-to-head advantage of 7 wins in the last 10 encounters, a draw or an AC Horsens victory could disrupt the expected outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Aarhus vs AC Horsens: model vs market
| Source | Aarhus | Draw | AC Horsens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 23% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +4% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aarhus vs AC Horsens odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aarhus, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus | 1.57 | 1.57 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.28 | 4.25 | -0.03 |
| AC Horsens | 5.03 | 5.00 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aarhus and AC Horsens expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Aarhus / AC Horsens)
- 0.86 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Aarhus / AC Horsens)
- 0.83 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aarhus vs AC Horsens score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aarhus goals. Columns: AC Horsens goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aarhus vs AC Horsens goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aarhus vs AC Horsens
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 54% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.25 | |
| AC Horsens | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aarhus or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or AC Horsens) | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aarhus win by 2+ | 17% | 5.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aarhus and AC Horsens recent form
Aarhus
2W 3D 1L
AC Horsens
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aarhus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AC Horsens away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aarhus at home only, AC Horsens away only.
Aarhus vs AC Horsens head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aarhus 7 · draws 1 · AC Horsens 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | AC Horsens | 2-2 | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-07-15 | Aarhus | 2-0 | AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-07-02 | Aarhus | 2-1 | AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-06-30 | AC Horsens | 0-3 | Aarhus | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-07-08 | Aarhus | 2-1 | AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-03-03 | Aarhus | 2-0 | AC Horsens | Superliga |
| 2022-11-26 | Aarhus | 0-1 | AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-08-26 | AC Horsens | 2-1 | Aarhus | Superliga |
| 2020-12-16 | Aarhus | 1-0 | AC Horsens | DBU Pokalen |
| 2020-12-13 | AC Horsens | 1-2 | Aarhus | Superliga |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Silkeborg vs Lyngby 2026-11-06
- Odense v Viborg — match page 2026-11-07
- FC Copenhagen vs Brondby — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland 2026-11-08
- FC Midtjylland v Sonderjyske — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Aarhus, previous: Aarhus vs SC Braga: odds and pick
- Aarhus, next: Brann vs Aarhus prediction
- AC Horsens, previous: Viborg v AC Horsens analysis