FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske preview
In the Denmark Superliga fixture between FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Midtjylland at 70%, while Sonderjyske stands at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. FC Midtjylland has an expected goals figure of 2.98, compared to Sonderjyske's 1.50.
Both teams to score has a 74% probability, and there is an 82% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Recent form shows FC Midtjylland with a mixed record of L-W-W-W-L-W, while Sonderjyske has struggled with L-L-W-L-W-L. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. These factors could influence the outcome if performance levels differ significantly from expectations.
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske: model vs market
| Source | FC Midtjylland | Draw | Sonderjyske |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 17% | 16% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Published | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.98 vs 1.50.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Midtjylland, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 1.28 | 1.31 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 5.60 | 5.55 | -0.05 |
| Sonderjyske | 8.75 | 7.48 | -1.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.48
- Attack rating (FC Midtjylland / Sonderjyske)
- 1.29 / 0.93
- Defence rating (FC Midtjylland / Sonderjyske)
- 1.12 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Midtjylland goals. Columns: Sonderjyske goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Midtjylland | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.98 | |
| Sonderjyske | 13% | 7.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Midtjylland or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Sonderjyske) | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Midtjylland win by 2+ | 49% | 2.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske recent form
FC Midtjylland
4W 0D 2L
Sonderjyske
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Midtjylland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sonderjyske away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Midtjylland at home only, Sonderjyske away only.
FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: FC Midtjylland 3 · draws 1 · Sonderjyske 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Sonderjyske | 2-3 | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-04-23 | Sonderjyske | 1-2 | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-04-04 | FC Midtjylland | 2-2 | Sonderjyske | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-11-23 | Sonderjyske | 2-1 | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-07-28 | FC Midtjylland | 6-2 | Sonderjyske | Denmark Superliga |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Silkeborg vs Lyngby 2026-11-06
- Odense v Viborg — match page 2026-11-07
- FC Copenhagen vs Brondby — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Aarhus vs AC Horsens — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC Midtjylland, previous: FC Midtjylland v Ajax analysis
- FC Midtjylland, next: Pafos v FC Midtjylland analysis
- Sonderjyske, previous: Sonderjyske – FC Copenhagen, 2026-11-02