Aarhus vs Viborg preview
Aarhus faces Viborg with both teams having a 37% chance of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Aarhus has scored 1.39 expected goals, while Viborg has 1.63. This suggests a competitive match, but Aarhus' recent form of D-L-W-D-W-L could impact their performance.
The prediction for Over 2.5 goals stands at 58%, and both teams to score is at 62%. Aarhus has a strong head-to-head record with 4 wins in the last 5 matches against Viborg, who has only 1 win. However, Viborg's recent form of W-W-L-D-L-W may challenge Aarhus' consistency.
Aarhus vs Viborg: model vs market
| Source | Aarhus | Draw | Viborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Published | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Edge | -7% | +1% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Aarhus vs Viborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aarhus, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus | 2.47 | 2.38 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.64 | +0.02 |
| Viborg | 2.54 | 2.63 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aarhus and Viborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Aarhus / Viborg)
- 1.01 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Aarhus / Viborg)
- 1.03 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aarhus vs Viborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aarhus goals. Columns: Viborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aarhus vs Viborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aarhus vs Viborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 37% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Viborg | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aarhus or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Viborg) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aarhus win by 2+ | 15% | 6.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Aarhus and Viborg recent form
Aarhus
2W 2D 2L
Viborg
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aarhus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Viborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aarhus at home only, Viborg away only.
Aarhus vs Viborg head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Aarhus 4 · draws 0 · Viborg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Viborg | 2-1 | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-05-17 | Aarhus | 6-2 | Viborg | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-04-06 | Viborg | 1-2 | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga |
| 2026-02-22 | Aarhus | 5-2 | Viborg | Denmark Superliga |
| 2025-09-14 | Viborg | 1-2 | Aarhus | Denmark Superliga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Randers FC vs Brondby 2026-10-23
- FC Midtjylland v Lyngby — match page 2026-10-25
- Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland 2026-10-25
- AC Horsens v Sonderjyske — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Aarhus, previous: Aarhus – Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 2026-10-22
- Aarhus, next: Roskilde v Aarhus analysis
- Viborg, previous: Viborg v FC Midtjylland analysis