AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske preview
In the Denmark Superliga fixture between AC Horsens and Sonderjyske, the 1X2 probabilities show AC Horsens at 58% to win, while Sonderjyske sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% probability. AC Horsens has an expected goals figure of 2.45, compared to Sonderjyske's 1.51, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. AC Horsens has drawn three of their last five matches, while Sonderjyske has won two of their last five. This inconsistency in form, along with a head-to-head record of 3 wins for AC Horsens and 7 for Sonderjyske in their last 10 meetings, suggests that an upset is possible. Both teams to score has a 72% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 76%.
AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske: model vs market
| Source | AC Horsens | Draw | Sonderjyske |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Published | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Edge | +18% | -6% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.51.
- The market prices AC Horsens below the model: +18.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AC Horsens, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Horsens | 2.36 | 2.35 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.51 | -0.01 |
| Sonderjyske | 2.75 | 2.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AC Horsens and Sonderjyske expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.96
- Attack rating (AC Horsens / Sonderjyske)
- 1.20 / 1.06
- Defence rating (AC Horsens / Sonderjyske)
- 0.99 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AC Horsens goals. Columns: Sonderjyske goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Horsens | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Sonderjyske | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AC Horsens or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Sonderjyske) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Horsens win by 2+ | 38% | 2.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AC Horsens and Sonderjyske recent form
AC Horsens
2W 3D 1L
Sonderjyske
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AC Horsens at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
Sonderjyske away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AC Horsens at home only, Sonderjyske away only.
AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: AC Horsens 3 · draws 0 · Sonderjyske 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sonderjyske | 2-5 | AC Horsens | Denmark Superliga |
| 2024-03-09 | AC Horsens | 1-4 | Sonderjyske | 1. Division |
| 2023-08-12 | Sonderjyske | 5-0 | AC Horsens | 1. Division |
| 2023-08-09 | AC Horsens | 1-2 | Sonderjyske | DBU Pokalen |
| 2021-05-20 | AC Horsens | 1-2 | Sonderjyske | Superliga |
| 2021-04-11 | Sonderjyske | 2-3 | AC Horsens | Superliga |
| 2021-03-14 | Sonderjyske | 2-0 | AC Horsens | Superliga |
| 2020-11-08 | AC Horsens | 0-3 | Sonderjyske | Superliga |
| 2020-06-10 | Sonderjyske | 2-1 | AC Horsens | DBU Pokalen |
| 2019-12-15 | AC Horsens | 2-1 | Sonderjyske | Superliga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Randers FC vs Brondby 2026-10-23
- FC Midtjylland v Lyngby — match page 2026-10-25
- Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland 2026-10-25
- Aarhus vs Viborg — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- AC Horsens, previous: AC Horsens vs Randers FC: odds and pick
- AC Horsens, next: Brabrand vs AC Horsens: odds and pick
- Sonderjyske, previous: Sonderjyske – Silkeborg, 2026-10-18