FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby preview
FC Midtjylland faces Lyngby with a strong 78% probability of winning, while Lyngby has just an 8% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, reflecting FC Midtjylland's expected goals of 2.89 compared to Lyngby's 0.89. With a 73% chance of Over 2.5 goals, the match could see multiple goals, but the 56% probability for both teams to score suggests Lyngby may struggle to find the net.
FC Midtjylland's recent form shows D-W-D-W-W-D, while Lyngby has D-L-L-D-W-W. This indicates FC Midtjylland's stronger performance, but the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty. If Lyngby can improve their scoring, they might challenge the expected outcome.
FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby: model vs market
| Source | FC Midtjylland | Draw | Lyngby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 14% |
| Published | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Edge | +11% | -5% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Midtjylland below the model: +11.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Midtjylland, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 1.40 | 1.40 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.05 |
| Lyngby | 6.65 | 6.55 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Midtjylland and Lyngby expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.78
- Attack rating (FC Midtjylland / Lyngby)
- 1.40 / 0.94
- Defence rating (FC Midtjylland / Lyngby)
- 0.66 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Midtjylland goals. Columns: Lyngby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Midtjylland | 69% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.52 | |
| Lyngby | 13% | 7.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Midtjylland or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Lyngby) | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Midtjylland win by 2+ | 59% | 1.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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FC Midtjylland and Lyngby recent form
FC Midtjylland
3W 3D 0L
Lyngby
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Midtjylland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lyngby away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Midtjylland at home only, Lyngby away only.
FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: FC Midtjylland 0 · draws 1 · Lyngby 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Lyngby | 1-1 | FC Midtjylland | Denmark Superliga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Randers FC vs Brondby 2026-10-23
- Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland 2026-10-25
- AC Horsens v Sonderjyske — match page 2026-10-25
- Aarhus vs Viborg — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- FC Midtjylland, previous: FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden prediction
- FC Midtjylland, next: FC Midtjylland v Odense analysis
- Lyngby, previous: Lyngby – FC Nordsjaelland, 2026-10-18
- Lyngby, next: Lyngby vs Randers FC prediction