Aucas vs Barcelona SC preview
In the Liga Pro match between Aucas and Barcelona SC, Aucas has a 47% chance to win, while Barcelona SC sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Aucas, which occurs at a 14% probability. Aucas has struggled recently, with their last six matches resulting in five draws and one loss.
The expected goals are 1.07 for Aucas and 0.85 for Barcelona SC, suggesting a low-scoring match. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 30%, and both teams to score is at 39%. Aucas has a slight edge in their recent head-to-head, with 2 wins out of the last 10 encounters, while Barcelona SC has 3 wins.
Aucas vs Barcelona SC: model vs market
| Source | Aucas | Draw | Barcelona SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 34% | 27% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Published | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aucas vs Barcelona SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aucas, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aucas | 2.02 | 1.87 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.25 | +0.15 |
| Barcelona SC | 3.60 | 4.00 | +0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aucas and Barcelona SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.92
- Attack rating (Aucas / Barcelona SC)
- 0.84 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Aucas / Barcelona SC)
- 0.92 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aucas vs Barcelona SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aucas goals. Columns: Barcelona SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aucas vs Barcelona SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aucas vs Barcelona SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aucas | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Barcelona SC | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.57 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aucas or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Barcelona SC) | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aucas win by 2+ | 16% | 6.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aucas and Barcelona SC recent form
Aucas
0W 4D 2L
Barcelona SC
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aucas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.24
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barcelona SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-7-7
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aucas at home only, Barcelona SC away only.
Aucas vs Barcelona SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aucas 2 · draws 5 · Barcelona SC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Aucas | 1-1 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2026-05-17 | Barcelona SC | 3-0 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2026-02-14 | Barcelona SC | 1-0 | Aucas | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-09-28 | Barcelona SC | 1-1 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2025-06-01 | Aucas | 2-0 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2024-11-02 | Aucas | 1-1 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2024-05-12 | Barcelona SC | 1-1 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2023-10-07 | Aucas | 3-2 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2023-05-07 | Barcelona SC | 5-1 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2022-11-13 | Aucas | 0-0 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
Other Championship Group - 4 fixtures
- Independiente del Valle v Universidad Catolica — match page 2026-10-23
- LDU de Quito vs Macara 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Aucas, previous: Aucas vs LDU de Quito prediction
- Barcelona SC, previous: Barcelona SC – Universidad Catolica, 2026-10-18