LDU de Quito vs Macara preview
In the Liga Pro fixture between LDU de Quito and Macara, the 1X2 probabilities show LDU de Quito at 52%, while Macara sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. LDU de Quito has expected goals of 1.27 compared to Macara's 1.07, indicating a slight edge in attacking potential.
However, both teams to score stands at 49%, suggesting a close contest. Recent form shows LDU de Quito with a mixed record of D-W-W-W-D-L, while Macara has been more consistent with W-W-W-W-L-W. The head-to-head record in the last 4 matches is also tight, with LDU de Quito winning once, drawing once, and Macara winning twice. This could make predictions uncertain.
LDU de Quito vs Macara: model vs market
| Source | LDU de Quito | Draw | Macara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Published | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
LDU de Quito vs Macara odds movement
Median bookmaker price on LDU de Quito, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| LDU de Quito | 1.72 | 1.67 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Macara | 4.45 | 4.80 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
LDU de Quito and Macara expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (LDU de Quito / Macara)
- 1.11 / 1.18
- Defence rating (LDU de Quito / Macara)
- 0.86 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
LDU de Quito vs Macara score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: LDU de Quito goals. Columns: Macara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
LDU de Quito vs Macara goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for LDU de Quito vs Macara
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LDU de Quito | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Macara | 22% | 4.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.06 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (LDU de Quito or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Macara) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | LDU de Quito win by 2+ | 18% | 5.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
LDU de Quito and Macara recent form
LDU de Quito
3W 2D 1L
Macara
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
LDU de Quito at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-4
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.76
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Macara away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.24
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
League matches this season before kick-off: LDU de Quito at home only, Macara away only.
LDU de Quito vs Macara head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: LDU de Quito 6 · draws 1 · Macara 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Macara | 1-0 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2026-03-01 | LDU de Quito | 0-2 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2025-08-30 | LDU de Quito | 1-1 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2025-05-10 | Macara | 0-1 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2024-08-04 | Macara | 0-4 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2024-03-05 | LDU de Quito | 2-1 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2022-10-22 | Macara | 0-5 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2022-05-29 | LDU de Quito | 3-2 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2021-10-17 | Macara | 2-1 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2021-05-01 | LDU de Quito | 2-1 | Macara | Liga Pro |
Other Championship Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
- LDU de Quito, previous: Aucas vs LDU de Quito prediction
- Macara, previous: Macara vs Independiente del Valle: odds and pick