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Liga Pro · Championship Group - 4

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica

· Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito

Alin prediction Independiente del Valle to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Independiente del ValleDrawUniversidad Catolica
  • WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Independiente del Valle is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Independiente del Valle1.66 Draw4.05 Universidad Catolica5.10

Price as of

Expected return at 1.66: -11.9% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica preview

Independiente del Valle has a 52% chance to win against Universidad Catolica, who sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 54% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score.

Independiente del Valle's expected goals are 1.51, while Universidad Catolica has 1.31. Recent form shows Independiente del Valle with a record of L-W-D-W-L-W, and Universidad Catolica at D-L-L-W-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIndependiente del ValleDrawUniversidad Catolica
Model41%27%32%
Market57%24%19%
Published53%25%22%
Edge-4%+1%+3%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Independiente del Valle, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.65Now 1.62 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Independiente del Valle1.651.62-0.03
Draw3.803.80+0.00
Universidad Catolica4.605.00+0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Independiente del Valle
1.31Universidad Catolica
Total expected goals
2.82
Attack rating (Independiente del Valle / Universidad Catolica)
1.28 / 1.17
Defence rating (Independiente del Valle / Universidad Catolica)
1.05 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 6.6% 5.1% 2.2% 1.0% 1 7.8% 13.0% 7.7% 3.4% 1.5% 2 6.8% 8.9% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1% 3 3.4% 4.5% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 1.8% 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Independiente del Valle goals. Columns: Universidad Catolica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Independiente del Valle53%1.88
Draw25%3.98
Universidad Catolica22%4.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.87
Under 2.546%2.15
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.39
Double chance1X (Independiente del Valle or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Universidad Catolica)47%2.13
Handicap -1Independiente del Valle win by 2+21%4.85
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica recent form

Independiente del Valle 3W 1D 2L
Universidad Catolica 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Independiente del Valle at home

Record (W-D-L)
12-2-2
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.38
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 25 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 5 penalties (20%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universidad Catolica away

Record (W-D-L)
4-7-6
Win rate
24%
Goals for / match
0.94
Goals against / match
0.94
Clean sheets
5 of 17
  • They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 9 penalties (56%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente del Valle at home only, Universidad Catolica away only.

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Independiente del Valle 5 · draws 2 · Universidad Catolica 3.

Independiente del ValleDrawsUniversidad Catolica
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-29Independiente del Valle2-2Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro
2026-05-13Universidad Catolica0-3Independiente del ValleSupercopa de Ecuador
2026-05-01Universidad Catolica2-3Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
2025-12-14Universidad Catolica0-1Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
2025-11-08Independiente del Valle0-2Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro
2025-10-13Independiente del Valle1-2Universidad CatolicaCopa Ecuador
2025-06-29Universidad Catolica0-3Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
2025-03-02Independiente del Valle1-1Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro
2024-10-29Independiente del Valle1-2Universidad CatolicaCopa Ecuador
2024-10-22Universidad Catolica0-1Independiente del ValleCopa Ecuador

Other Championship Group - 4 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Independiente del Valle to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Independiente del Valle
Our pick: Independiente del Valle to win 18+ Bet Now