Universidad Catolica vs Aucas preview
In the Liga Pro fixture between Universidad Catolica and Aucas, the 1X2 probabilities show Universidad Catolica at 53% to win, while Aucas sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 15% chance.
Universidad Catolica's expected goals stand at 1.61 compared to Aucas's 0.67. However, both teams to score is at 40%, which could challenge the predicted low-scoring outcome. Recent form shows Universidad Catolica with mixed results, while Aucas has struggled, recording only 2 draws in their last 6 matches. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas: model vs market
| Source | Universidad Catolica | Draw | Aucas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 27% | 14% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universidad Catolica, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica | 1.80 | 1.80 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.42 | +0.02 |
| Aucas | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Universidad Catolica and Aucas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.28
- Attack rating (Universidad Catolica / Aucas)
- 1.06 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Universidad Catolica / Aucas)
- 0.80 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Universidad Catolica goals. Columns: Aucas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Universidad Catolica vs Aucas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad Catolica | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Aucas | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.49 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Universidad Catolica or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Aucas) | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad Catolica win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Universidad Catolica and Aucas recent form
Universidad Catolica
2W 2D 2L
Aucas
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Universidad Catolica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 9 penalties (56%).
Aucas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Universidad Catolica at home only, Aucas away only.
Universidad Catolica vs Aucas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Universidad Catolica 2 · draws 4 · Aucas 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Universidad Catolica | 1-1 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2026-05-09 | Aucas | 2-1 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2025-08-03 | Universidad Catolica | 6-2 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2025-04-16 | Aucas | 2-1 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2025-03-07 | Universidad Catolica | 0-0 | Aucas | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2024-11-09 | Universidad Catolica | 3-2 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2024-05-19 | Aucas | 2-2 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2023-08-17 | Universidad Catolica | 2-2 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2023-03-19 | Aucas | 4-1 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2022-09-05 | Universidad Catolica | 1-2 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
Other Championship Group - 5 fixtures
- Macara v Barcelona SC — match page 2026-10-31
- Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Universidad Catolica, previous: Independiente del Valle v Universidad Catolica analysis
- Aucas, previous: Aucas vs Barcelona SC: odds and pick