Macara vs Universidad Catolica preview
In the Liga Pro fixture between Macara and Universidad Catolica, the 1X2 probabilities show Macara at 43%, while Universidad Catolica sits at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Macara is in strong recent form with 6 consecutive wins, while Universidad Catolica has struggled, recording 1 win in their last 6 matches.
The expected goals are 1.56 for Macara and 0.85 for Universidad Catolica, indicating a potential for a low-scoring match. However, the model suggests a 43% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. An unexpected performance from Universidad Catolica could challenge these predictions.
Macara vs Universidad Catolica: model vs market
| Source | Macara | Draw | Universidad Catolica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 32% |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Macara below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Macara vs Universidad Catolica odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Macara, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macara | 2.41 | 2.31 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.21 | +0.06 |
| Universidad Catolica | 2.77 | 2.89 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Macara and Universidad Catolica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Macara / Universidad Catolica)
- 1.26 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Macara / Universidad Catolica)
- 0.77 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Macara vs Universidad Catolica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Macara goals. Columns: Universidad Catolica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Macara vs Universidad Catolica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Macara vs Universidad Catolica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macara | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Universidad Catolica | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Macara or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Universidad Catolica) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Macara win by 2+ | 29% | 3.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Macara and Universidad Catolica recent form
Macara
6W 0D 0L
Universidad Catolica
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Macara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-3
- Win rate
- 65%
- Goals for / match
- 1.59
- Goals against / match
- 0.82
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 20 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Universidad Catolica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-6
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 0.89
- Goals against / match
- 0.89
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 9 penalties (56%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Macara at home only, Universidad Catolica away only.
Macara vs Universidad Catolica head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Macara 1 · draws 2 · Universidad Catolica 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Universidad Catolica | 0-1 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2026-08-18 | Macara | 1-1 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-24 | Universidad Catolica | 4-0 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2025-07-27 | Macara | 1-4 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2025-04-06 | Universidad Catolica | 1-0 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2024-11-30 | Macara | 1-2 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2024-06-02 | Universidad Catolica | 3-0 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2022-07-31 | Macara | 1-3 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2022-03-13 | Universidad Catolica | 2-2 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2021-08-29 | Macara | 1-2 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
Other Championship Group - 6 fixtures
- Aucas v Independiente del Valle — match page 2026-11-08
- Barcelona SC v LDU de Quito — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Macara, previous: Macara vs Barcelona SC: odds and pick
- Universidad Catolica, previous: Universidad Catolica vs Aucas prediction