Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito preview
In the Liga Pro fixture between Barcelona SC and LDU de Quito, the 1X2 probabilities show Barcelona SC at 38%, LDU de Quito at 33%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Barcelona SC's expected goals stand at 1.38, while LDU de Quito's is 1.06, indicating a tighter match.
Barcelona SC's recent form is L-W-D-L-D-D, while LDU de Quito has a stronger run with L-L-D-W-W-W. The model suggests a 44% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score. A surprise result could occur if LDU de Quito maintains their recent winning momentum against Barcelona SC's inconsistent form.
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito: model vs market
| Source | Barcelona SC | Draw | LDU de Quito |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 30% | 28% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.06.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barcelona SC, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona SC | 2.41 | 2.55 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 3.22 | 3.21 | -0.01 |
| LDU de Quito | 2.78 | 2.61 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Barcelona SC and LDU de Quito expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Barcelona SC / LDU de Quito)
- 1.01 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Barcelona SC / LDU de Quito)
- 1.01 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barcelona SC goals. Columns: LDU de Quito goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona SC | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| LDU de Quito | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barcelona SC or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or LDU de Quito) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona SC win by 2+ | 21% | 4.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Barcelona SC and LDU de Quito recent form
Barcelona SC
1W 3D 2L
LDU de Quito
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barcelona SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.44
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
LDU de Quito away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-7
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Barcelona SC at home only, LDU de Quito away only.
Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Barcelona SC 3 · draws 1 · LDU de Quito 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | LDU de Quito | 2-1 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2026-07-27 | Barcelona SC | 0-1 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-04 | LDU de Quito | 0-2 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-11-23 | Barcelona SC | 2-2 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2025-10-18 | LDU de Quito | 3-0 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-07-25 | Barcelona SC | 0-1 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2025-06-19 | LDU de Quito | 3-1 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2024-08-31 | LDU de Quito | 3-0 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2024-05-23 | Barcelona SC | 2-0 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2023-09-17 | Barcelona SC | 1-0 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
Other Championship Group - 6 fixtures
- Macara vs Universidad Catolica 2026-11-08
- Aucas v Independiente del Valle — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Barcelona SC, previous: Macara vs Barcelona SC: odds and pick
- LDU de Quito, previous: Independiente del Valle v LDU de Quito analysis