Macara vs Barcelona SC preview
In the Liga Pro fixture between Macara and Barcelona SC, Macara has a 47% probability to win, while Barcelona SC stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% chance. Macara's expected goals are 1.39 compared to Barcelona SC's 1.02, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Macara.
However, there are factors that could change the outcome. Both teams to score has a 49% chance, suggesting that Barcelona SC could find the net. Additionally, Macara's recent form shows 4 wins followed by a loss, while Barcelona SC has a mixed record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6 matches. This inconsistency could impact the final result.
Macara vs Barcelona SC: model vs market
| Source | Macara | Draw | Barcelona SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Published | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Macara vs Barcelona SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Macara, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macara | 2.05 | 1.90 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.25 | +0.01 |
| Barcelona SC | 3.42 | 3.96 | +0.54 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Macara and Barcelona SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Macara / Barcelona SC)
- 1.19 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Macara / Barcelona SC)
- 0.85 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Macara vs Barcelona SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Macara goals. Columns: Barcelona SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Macara vs Barcelona SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Macara vs Barcelona SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macara | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Barcelona SC | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Macara or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Barcelona SC) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Macara win by 2+ | 22% | 4.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Macara and Barcelona SC recent form
Macara
5W 0D 1L
Barcelona SC
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Macara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Barcelona SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-7
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Macara at home only, Barcelona SC away only.
Macara vs Barcelona SC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Macara 3 · draws 0 · Barcelona SC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Barcelona SC | 1-2 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-19 | Macara | 3-1 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-08-17 | Barcelona SC | 0-2 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2025-04-27 | Macara | 0-1 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
Other Championship Group - 5 fixtures
- Universidad Catolica vs Aucas — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Macara, previous: LDU de Quito vs Macara prediction
- Barcelona SC, previous: Aucas vs Barcelona SC: odds and pick