Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito preview
In the Liga Pro fixture, Independiente del Valle has a 50% chance of winning against LDU de Quito, who has a 24% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% probability. Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides, while Over 2.5 goals is at 46%, suggesting a lower likelihood of a high-scoring match.
Independiente del Valle's expected goals are 1.44, compared to LDU de Quito's 1.08. Recent form shows Independiente del Valle with a mixed record of D-L-W-D-W-L, while LDU de Quito has been stronger with L-D-W-W-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, meaning there is some uncertainty in the outcome.
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito: model vs market
| Source | Independiente del Valle | Draw | LDU de Quito |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 1.08.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Independiente del Valle, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 1.89 | 1.76 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.60 | +0.12 |
| LDU de Quito | 3.75 | 4.10 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Independiente del Valle / LDU de Quito)
- 1.13 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Independiente del Valle / LDU de Quito)
- 0.94 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Independiente del Valle goals. Columns: LDU de Quito goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| LDU de Quito | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Independiente del Valle or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or LDU de Quito) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente del Valle win by 2+ | 22% | 4.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito recent form
Independiente del Valle
2W 2D 2L
LDU de Quito
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Independiente del Valle at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-3-2
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.24
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 25 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 5 penalties (20%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
LDU de Quito away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-6
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente del Valle at home only, LDU de Quito away only.
Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Independiente del Valle 1 · draws 3 · LDU de Quito 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | LDU de Quito | 0-2 | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-19 | Independiente del Valle | 0-2 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2025-12-10 | Independiente del Valle | 0-0 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2025-11-29 | LDU de Quito | 2-1 | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| 2025-06-22 | LDU de Quito | 1-1 | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| 2025-02-23 | Independiente del Valle | 1-1 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
Other Championship Group - 5 fixtures
- Macara v Barcelona SC — match page 2026-10-31
- Universidad Catolica vs Aucas — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Independiente del Valle, previous: Independiente del Valle v Universidad Catolica analysis
- LDU de Quito, previous: LDU de Quito vs Macara prediction