Aucas vs Independiente del Valle preview
Aucas faces Independiente del Valle with a 29% chance of winning compared to 43% for Independiente del Valle. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects a 11% probability. Aucas has an expected goals figure of 1.04, while Independiente del Valle stands at 1.39.
Both teams to score has a 50% probability, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 44%. Aucas' recent form shows 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Independiente del Valle has 4 wins in their last 6. Aucas has only managed 1 win in their last 10 meetings against Independiente del Valle, who have won 7 times.
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle: model vs market
| Source | Aucas | Draw | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Published | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Independiente del Valle, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aucas | 3.27 | 3.13 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | -0.00 |
| Independiente del Valle | 2.09 | 2.14 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aucas and Independiente del Valle expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.43
- Attack rating (Aucas / Independiente del Valle)
- 0.87 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Aucas / Independiente del Valle)
- 1.10 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aucas goals. Columns: Independiente del Valle goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aucas | 29% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Independiente del Valle | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aucas or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Independiente del Valle) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente del Valle win by 2+ | 21% | 4.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aucas and Independiente del Valle recent form
Aucas
1W 2D 3L
Independiente del Valle
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aucas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-7
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.28
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente del Valle away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 13-0-3
- Win rate
- 81%
- Goals for / match
- 2.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 26 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 5 penalties (20%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aucas at home only, Independiente del Valle away only.
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aucas 1 · draws 2 · Independiente del Valle 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2026-07-16 | Aucas | 0-3 | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| 2026-03-14 | Independiente del Valle | 2-2 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2025-07-19 | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2025-03-28 | Aucas | 1-2 | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| 2024-09-01 | Aucas | 0-2 | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| 2024-03-24 | Independiente del Valle | 1-1 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2023-11-11 | Aucas | 2-0 | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| 2023-06-02 | Independiente del Valle | 2-0 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2023-02-11 | Independiente del Valle | 3-0 | Aucas | Supercopa de Ecuador |
Other Championship Group - 6 fixtures
- Macara vs Universidad Catolica 2026-11-08
- Barcelona SC v LDU de Quito — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Aucas, previous: Universidad Catolica vs Aucas prediction
- Independiente del Valle, previous: Independiente del Valle v LDU de Quito analysis