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Liga Pro · Championship Group - 3

Aucas vs LDU de Quito

· Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito

Alin prediction LDU de Quito to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AucasDrawLDU de Quito
Best market odds
Aucas3.57 Draw3.25 LDU de Quito2.23

Price as of

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Aucas vs LDU de Quito preview

Aucas faces LDU de Quito with a 40% chance for the visitors to win compared to Aucas' 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects both teams' expected goals at 1.04. Aucas has struggled recently, with a record of L-L-D-D-D-W, while LDU de Quito shows better form at W-W-L-D-L-W.

The match could see fewer goals than expected, as our model predicts only a 35% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance for both teams to score. Aucas' recent performance may impact their ability to secure a positive result, despite their historical head-to-head record showing 1 win against LDU de Quito's 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 4 encounters.

Aucas vs LDU de Quito: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAucasDrawLDU de Quito
Model30%33%37%
Market27%30%43%
Published28%31%41%
Edge+3%+3%-6%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Aucas vs LDU de Quito odds movement

Median bookmaker price on LDU de Quito, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.

Opened 2.50Now 2.10 -0.40
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aucas2.753.30+0.55
Draw3.023.01-0.01
LDU de Quito2.502.10-0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aucas and LDU de Quito expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.97Aucas
1.10LDU de Quito
Total expected goals
2.07
Attack rating (Aucas / LDU de Quito)
0.84 / 1.14
Defence rating (Aucas / LDU de Quito)
0.91 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aucas vs LDU de Quito score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.0% 12.5% 7.6% 2.8% 1.0% 1 10.9% 14.8% 7.4% 2.7% 0.9% 2 5.9% 6.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 3 1.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Aucas goals. Columns: LDU de Quito goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aucas vs LDU de Quito goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 34%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aucas vs LDU de Quito

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aucas28%3.57
Draw31%3.26
LDU de Quito41%2.42
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.92
Under 2.566%1.52
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.34
No57%1.75
Double chance1X (Aucas or draw)59%1.70
12 (either side)69%1.44
X2 (draw or LDU de Quito)72%1.39
Handicap -1LDU de Quito win by 2+16%6.45
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Aucas and LDU de Quito recent form

Aucas 1W 3D 2L
LDU de Quito 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aucas at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-2-6
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.12
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

LDU de Quito away

Record (W-D-L)
7-2-6
Win rate
47%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Aucas at home only, LDU de Quito away only.

Expected lineups

Aucas lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 13 Hamilton Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez
  2. 28 R. Quiñónez
  3. 2 S. Morales
  4. 4 M. Burdisso
  5. 37 A. Zova
  6. 6 A. Spina
  7. 10 A. Preciado
  8. 18 Andrés David Mena Montenegro
  9. 21 P. Guzmán
  10. 30 B. Oyola
  11. 9 R. Monti Azpiazu

Bench: I. Chaves, Thiago, J. Andrade, A. Bolaños, C. Zambrano, Luis Aldair Arroyo Cabeza, B. Carabalí, M. Carcelén, A. Garcia

LDU de Quito lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 1 G. Valle
  2. 33 Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla
  3. 4 Ricardo Ade
  4. 30 G. Allala
  5. 23 Yerlin Quinonez
  6. 8 J. Pretell
  7. 20 F. Cornejo
  8. 57 M. Weigandt
  9. 7 L. Rodríguez
  10. 11 M. Estrada
  11. 13 J. Corozo

Bench: Richard Alexander Mina Caicedo, Sebastían González Baquero, Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel, Alexander Domínguez Carabalí, I. Zambrano, Ruddy Mina, J. Cuero, J. Rodríguez, L. Segovia, J. Carabalí, K. Velasco

Aucas vs LDU de Quito head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Aucas 2 · draws 4 · LDU de Quito 4.

AucasDrawsLDU de Quito
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-26LDU de Quito1-0AucasCopa Ecuador
2026-08-17Aucas0-1LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
2026-04-23LDU de Quito0-0AucasLiga Pro
2025-08-09Aucas1-0LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
2025-04-18LDU de Quito3-1AucasLiga Pro
2024-08-17Aucas0-1LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
2024-03-16LDU de Quito1-2AucasLiga Pro
2023-08-13Aucas0-0LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
2023-03-04LDU de Quito1-1AucasLiga Pro
2023-02-04LDU de Quito0-0AucasFriendlies Clubs

Other Championship Group - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot LDU de Quito to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on LDU de Quito
Our pick: LDU de Quito to win 18+ Bet Now