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Liga Pro · Championship Group - 3

Macara vs Independiente del Valle

· Estadio Bellavista, Ambato

Alin prediction Independiente del Valle to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MacaraDrawIndependiente del Valle
Best market odds
Macara4.92 Draw3.52 Independiente del Valle2.22

Price as of

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Macara vs Independiente del Valle preview

In the Liga Pro fixture between Macara and Independiente del Valle, the 1X2 probabilities show Independiente del Valle at 46%, while Macara sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, which occurs with a 7% chance.

Both teams have shown strong attacking potential, with expected goals of 1.76 for Macara and 1.44 for Independiente del Valle. The model suggests a 62% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score. However, Macara's recent form includes 4 wins in 6 matches, which could challenge Independiente del Valle's dominance in their last 10 encounters, where they have 8 wins.

Macara vs Independiente del Valle: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMacaraDrawIndependiente del Valle
Model44%25%31%
Market21%27%52%
Published27%27%46%
Edge+23%-2%-21%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Macara vs Independiente del Valle odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Independiente del Valle, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.05Now 1.75 -0.31
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Macara3.634.33+0.69
Draw3.013.29+0.27
Independiente del Valle2.051.75-0.31

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Macara and Independiente del Valle expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Macara
1.44Independiente del Valle
Total expected goals
3.20
Attack rating (Macara / Independiente del Valle)
1.21 / 1.45
Defence rating (Macara / Independiente del Valle)
0.93 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Macara vs Independiente del Valle score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 4.8% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0% 1 6.1% 11.4% 7.5% 3.6% 1.8% 2 6.3% 9.1% 6.5% 3.1% 1.6% 3 3.7% 5.3% 3.8% 1.8% 0.9% 4+ 2.4% 3.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6%

Rows: Macara goals. Columns: Independiente del Valle goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Macara vs Independiente del Valle goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Macara vs Independiente del Valle

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Macara27%3.75
Draw27%3.72
Independiente del Valle46%2.15
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.61
Under 2.538%2.63
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.56
No36%2.79
Double chance1X (Macara or draw)54%1.87
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Independiente del Valle)73%1.36
Handicap -1Independiente del Valle win by 2+14%6.91
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Macara and Independiente del Valle recent form

Macara 5W 0D 1L
Independiente del Valle 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Macara at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-3-3
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.53
Goals against / match
0.93
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).

Independiente del Valle away

Record (W-D-L)
13-0-2
Win rate
87%
Goals for / match
2.47
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 25 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Macara at home only, Independiente del Valle away only.

Expected lineups

Macara lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 R. Rodriguez
  2. 27 J. Mohor
  3. 14 J. Marrufo
  4. 4 J. Jiménez
  5. 25 J. Bolaños
  6. 5 J. Estacio
  7. 20 M. Viera
  8. 16 J. Cazares
  9. 15 M. Tello
  10. 28 A. Campana
  11. 9 F. Posse

Bench: Juan Espinoza, D. Cuero, L. Ayala, P. Ramos, S. Etchebarne, L. Ferro, M. Medranda, C. Caicedo, B. Coello, J. Klinger

Independiente del Valle lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 A. Quintana
  2. 19 L. Loor
  3. 5 R. Schunke
  4. 14 M. Carabajal
  5. 13 Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
  6. 6 J. Alcívar
  7. 31 Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
  8. 10 J. Sornoza
  9. 28 H. Quintana
  10. 11 M. Perelló
  11. 9 C. González

Bench: J. Espinoza, Y. Ochoa, G. Cortéz, R. Briones, J. Méndez, Andy René Velasco García, Y. Vásquez, E. Quintero, M. Peralta, D. Reasco

Macara vs Independiente del Valle head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Macara 1 · draws 1 · Independiente del Valle 8.

MacaraDrawsIndependiente del Valle
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-05Independiente del Valle3-1MacaraLiga Pro
2026-05-16Macara0-3Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
2025-07-12Macara1-2Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
2025-03-16Independiente del Valle1-1MacaraLiga Pro
2024-11-24Independiente del Valle7-0MacaraLiga Pro
2024-05-26Macara0-1Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
2022-09-25Independiente del Valle1-0MacaraLiga Pro
2022-05-10Macara0-1Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
2021-08-01Independiente del Valle4-0MacaraLiga Pro
2021-02-27Macara3-1Independiente del ValleLiga Pro

Other Championship Group - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Independiente del Valle to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Independiente del Valle
Our pick: Independiente del Valle to win 18+ Bet Now