Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica preview
In the Liga Pro fixture between Barcelona SC and Universidad Catolica, the 1X2 probabilities show Barcelona SC at 39%, draw at 29%, and Universidad Catolica at 33%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a 10% chance.
Barcelona SC's expected goals are 1.05, while Universidad Catolica sits slightly higher at 1.15. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 38%, and both teams to score stands at 46%. Recent form shows Barcelona SC with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Universidad Catolica has 3 wins in the same period. A draw or a high-scoring game could challenge the predicted outcome.
Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica: model vs market
| Source | Barcelona SC | Draw | Universidad Catolica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 32% | 37% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | -9% | +4% | +6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barcelona SC, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona SC | 2.30 | 2.23 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.28 | -0.02 |
| Universidad Catolica | 2.85 | 2.93 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Barcelona SC and Universidad Catolica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Barcelona SC / Universidad Catolica)
- 0.89 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Barcelona SC / Universidad Catolica)
- 0.91 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barcelona SC goals. Columns: Universidad Catolica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona SC | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Universidad Catolica | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barcelona SC or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Universidad Catolica) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona SC win by 2+ | 13% | 7.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Barcelona SC and Universidad Catolica recent form
Barcelona SC
2W 2D 2L
Universidad Catolica
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barcelona SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Universidad Catolica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Barcelona SC at home only, Universidad Catolica away only.
Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Barcelona SC 0 · draws 4 · Universidad Catolica 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Universidad Catolica | 2-1 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2026-03-22 | Barcelona SC | 1-1 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2025-12-07 | Barcelona SC | 1-1 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2025-11-02 | Universidad Catolica | 1-1 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-08-31 | Barcelona SC | 2-3 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2025-05-11 | Universidad Catolica | 2-2 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
Other Championship Group - 3 fixtures
- Macara vs Independiente del Valle 2026-10-17
- Aucas v LDU de Quito — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Barcelona SC, previous: LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC: odds and pick
- Universidad Catolica, previous: Universidad Catolica v Macara analysis