Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario preview
In the Liga Pro fixture between Deportivo Cuenca and Tecnico Universitario, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo Cuenca at 48%, while Tecnico Universitario is at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which occurs 17% of the time according to our model.
Deportivo Cuenca has an expected goals figure of 1.01, compared to Tecnico Universitario's 0.72. While both teams to score stands at 34%, the lower expected goals for Tecnico Universitario could lead to a situation where they fail to find the net, impacting the outcome. Recent form also indicates inconsistency, with Deportivo Cuenca recording three draws and two losses in their last six matches.
Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Cuenca | Draw | Tecnico Universitario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 36% | 24% |
| Market | 51% | 28% | 21% |
| Published | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Edge | -11% | +8% | +3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Cuenca, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Cuenca | 1.85 | 1.77 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.27 | -0.03 |
| Tecnico Universitario | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Cuenca and Tecnico Universitario expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.73
- Attack rating (Deportivo Cuenca / Tecnico Universitario)
- 0.59 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Deportivo Cuenca / Tecnico Universitario)
- 0.93 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Cuenca goals. Columns: Tecnico Universitario goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Cuenca | 48% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Tecnico Universitario | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25% | 3.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.95 |
| No | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Cuenca or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Tecnico Universitario) | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Cuenca win by 2+ | 16% | 6.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Cuenca and Tecnico Universitario recent form
Deportivo Cuenca
1W 3D 2L
Tecnico Universitario
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Cuenca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tecnico Universitario away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-11
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Cuenca at home only, Tecnico Universitario away only.
Expected lineups
Deportivo Cuenca lineup · 5-4-1
- 1 F. Ferrero
- 37 C. Arboleda
- 6 S. Postel
- 28 P. Boolsen
- 23 E. Guevara
- 16 J. Mejia
- 19 Melvin Fabricio Díaz Canencia
- 53 Yeltzin Hernán Erique Villigua
- 30 M. Maccari
- 7 Lucas Eduardo Mancinelli
- 29 M. Klimowicz
Bench: Ignacio Ariel Mosquera Arroyo, G. Nardelli, É. Vega, G. Rivero, Ethan Gabriel Minda Humanante, J. Chacón, I. Piedra, B. García, Marcos Andrés López Cabrera, J. Ordoñez, David González, C. Benalcazar
Tecnico Universitario lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 S. Razzeto
- 85 Y. Arce
- 5 S. Mena
- 13 J. Anaya
- 23 E. Mesa
- 8 D. Armas
- 33 J. Majao
- 70 C. Castaño
- 25 B. Delgado
- 10 J. Bocanegra
- 90 W. Caicedo
Bench: L. Estupiñán, H. Guardia, Ayrton Morales, F. Castilllo, Anthony Castilo, A. Cela, Luis Arce Caicedo Kener, M. Carrasco, C. Cuero
Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Cuenca 4 · draws 2 · Tecnico Universitario 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Tecnico Universitario | 3-1 | Deportivo Cuenca | Liga Pro |
| 2026-05-02 | Deportivo Cuenca | 2-1 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
| 2025-09-14 | Tecnico Universitario | 0-2 | Deportivo Cuenca | Liga Pro |
| 2025-05-17 | Deportivo Cuenca | 2-0 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
| 2024-10-05 | Deportivo Cuenca | 1-1 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
| 2024-04-18 | Tecnico Universitario | 2-1 | Deportivo Cuenca | Liga Pro |
| 2023-08-29 | Deportivo Cuenca | 1-1 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
| 2023-04-02 | Tecnico Universitario | 3-0 | Deportivo Cuenca | Liga Pro |
| 2022-10-04 | Tecnico Universitario | 1-0 | Deportivo Cuenca | Liga Pro |
| 2022-05-07 | Deportivo Cuenca | 1-0 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
Other Relegation Group - 3 fixtures
- Delfin SC vs Manta FC 2026-10-18
- Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Cuenca, previous: Orense SC v Deportivo Cuenca analysis
- Tecnico Universitario, previous: Manta FC – Tecnico Universitario, 2026-10-10