Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC preview
Mushuc Runa SC has a 50% probability to win against Orense SC, who stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 11% chance. Mushuc Runa SC's expected goals are 1.57, while Orense SC's are 0.98. This suggests a tighter match, but the 51% chance of both teams to score indicates potential for goals from both sides.
Recent form shows Mushuc Runa SC with L-D-L-D-D-W and Orense SC with D-L-L-W-L-L. Mushuc Runa SC has won 2 of the last 5 head-to-head matches, while Orense SC has won 3. The confidence grade is C, which means unpredictability could affect the outcome.
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC: model vs market
| Source | Mushuc Runa SC | Draw | Orense SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Published | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.98.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mushuc Runa SC, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa SC | 1.76 | 1.84 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.30 | -0.12 |
| Orense SC | 4.47 | 4.10 | -0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Mushuc Runa SC / Orense SC)
- 0.91 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Mushuc Runa SC / Orense SC)
- 1.04 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mushuc Runa SC goals. Columns: Orense SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mushuc Runa SC | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Orense SC | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mushuc Runa SC or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Orense SC) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mushuc Runa SC win by 2+ | 27% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC recent form
Mushuc Runa SC
1W 3D 2L
Orense SC
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mushuc Runa SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Orense SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-10
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mushuc Runa SC at home only, Orense SC away only.
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Mushuc Runa SC 2 · draws 0 · Orense SC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Mushuc Runa SC | 2-1 | Orense SC | Liga Pro |
| 2026-03-19 | Orense SC | 3-2 | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-09-14 | Orense SC | 3-1 | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-05-17 | Mushuc Runa SC | 2-5 | Orense SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-03-06 | Mushuc Runa SC | 2-1 | Orense SC | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
Other Relegation Group - 3 fixtures
- Deportivo Cuenca vs Tecnico Universitario — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Delfin SC vs Manta FC 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Mushuc Runa SC, previous: Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC prediction
- Orense SC, previous: Orense SC v Deportivo Cuenca analysis