Updated

Liga Pro · Relegation Group - 6

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC

· Estadio del Mushuc Runa Sporting Club, Ambato· Referee Robert Cabrera

Alin prediction Mushuc Runa SC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Mushuc Runa SCDrawDelfin SC
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mushuc Runa SC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Mushuc Runa SC1.70 Draw3.81 Delfin SC5.25

Price as of

Expected return at 1.70: -14.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC preview

Mushuc Runa SC faces Delfin SC with a 50% chance of winning compared to Delfin's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals of 1.50 for Mushuc Runa SC and 1.49 for Delfin SC. The recent form shows Mushuc Runa SC struggling with five matches without a win, while Delfin SC has won three of their last five.

The model suggests a 57% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If Mushuc Runa SC's poor form continues, it could affect their chances despite their historical head-to-head advantage of 4 wins in the last 10 matches against Delfin SC.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMushuc Runa SCDrawDelfin SC
Model37%27%37%
Market55%25%20%
Published50%26%24%
Edge-5%0%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mushuc Runa SC, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-05.

Opened 1.68Now 1.68 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mushuc Runa SC1.681.68+0.00
Draw3.743.65-0.09
Delfin SC4.604.70+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mushuc Runa SC and Delfin SC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50Mushuc Runa SC
1.49Delfin SC
Total expected goals
2.99
Attack rating (Mushuc Runa SC / Delfin SC)
0.89 / 1.14
Defence rating (Mushuc Runa SC / Delfin SC)
1.23 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 6.4% 5.6% 2.8% 1.5% 1 6.4% 12.4% 8.4% 4.2% 2.2% 2 5.6% 8.4% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 3 2.8% 4.2% 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 4+ 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4%

Rows: Mushuc Runa SC goals. Columns: Delfin SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mushuc Runa SC50%1.98
Draw26%3.90
Delfin SC24%4.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.74
Under 2.543%2.35
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.58
Double chance1X (Mushuc Runa SC or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Delfin SC)50%2.02
Handicap -1Mushuc Runa SC win by 2+18%5.51
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Mushuc Runa SC and Delfin SC recent form

Mushuc Runa SC 0W 2D 4L
Delfin SC 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mushuc Runa SC at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-7-4
Win rate
35%
Goals for / match
1.12
Goals against / match
1.06
Clean sheets
8 of 17
  • They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Delfin SC away

Record (W-D-L)
1-5-11
Win rate
6%
Goals for / match
0.59
Goals against / match
1.53
Clean sheets
2 of 17
  • They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 35 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Mushuc Runa SC at home only, Delfin SC away only.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Mushuc Runa SC 4 · draws 1 · Delfin SC 5.

Mushuc Runa SCDrawsDelfin SC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-10-09Delfin SC3-2Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
2026-08-28Mushuc Runa SC1-0Delfin SCLiga Pro
2026-05-03Delfin SC1-0Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
2025-06-15Delfin SC3-1Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
2025-02-18Mushuc Runa SC2-0Delfin SCLiga Pro
2024-11-08Delfin SC4-2Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
2024-05-19Mushuc Runa SC5-0Delfin SCLiga Pro
2023-09-16Mushuc Runa SC2-0Delfin SCLiga Pro
2023-04-16Delfin SC3-0Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
2022-09-25Delfin SC0-0Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro

Other Relegation Group - 6 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Mushuc Runa SC to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Mushuc Runa SC
Our pick: Mushuc Runa SC to win 18+ Bet Now